Moonshot AI has sustained a rapid release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping major open-weight models every two to three months through mid-2026, with Kimi K3 launching via API on July 16 and full 2.8-trillion-parameter weights following on July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment around a potential Kimi K4 release reflects this pattern alongside Moonshot’s ongoing hardware push for Blackwell GPUs despite U.S. export restrictions, as reported in late July. Competitive dynamics with U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen continue to pressure timelines, while K3’s strong benchmark results in long-context reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks have reinforced expectations for incremental frontier-scale upgrades. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of training runs, developer conferences, or regulatory signals on compute access that could accelerate or delay the next model’s arrival.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,021 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
2%
December 31, 2026
9%
$15,021 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$8,672 Vol.
2%
December 31, 2026
$6,349 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI has sustained a rapid release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping major open-weight models every two to three months through mid-2026, with Kimi K3 launching via API on July 16 and full 2.8-trillion-parameter weights following on July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment around a potential Kimi K4 release reflects this pattern alongside Moonshot’s ongoing hardware push for Blackwell GPUs despite U.S. export restrictions, as reported in late July. Competitive dynamics with U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen continue to pressure timelines, while K3’s strong benchmark results in long-context reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks have reinforced expectations for incremental frontier-scale upgrades. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of training runs, developer conferences, or regulatory signals on compute access that could accelerate or delay the next model’s arrival.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$15,021End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI has sustained a rapid release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping major open-weight models every two to three months through mid-2026, with Kimi K3 launching via API on July 16 and full 2.8-trillion-parameter weights following on July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment around a potential Kimi K4 release reflects this pattern alongside Moonshot’s ongoing hardware push for Blackwell GPUs despite U.S. export restrictions, as reported in late July. Competitive dynamics with U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen continue to pressure timelines, while K3’s strong benchmark results in long-context reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks have reinforced expectations for incremental frontier-scale upgrades. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of training runs, developer conferences, or regulatory signals on compute access that could accelerate or delay the next model’s arrival.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,021End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI has sustained a rapid release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping major open-weight models every two to three months through mid-2026, with Kimi K3 launching via API on July 16 and full 2.8-trillion-parameter weights following on July 27 under a custom license. Trader sentiment around a potential Kimi K4 release reflects this pattern alongside Moonshot’s ongoing hardware push for Blackwell GPUs despite U.S. export restrictions, as reported in late July. Competitive dynamics with U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen continue to pressure timelines, while K3’s strong benchmark results in long-context reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks have reinforced expectations for incremental frontier-scale upgrades. Key upcoming catalysts include any confirmation of training runs, developer conferences, or regulatory signals on compute access that could accelerate or delay the next model’s arrival.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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