Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s risk lists shows no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing 100 kilotons or more of impact energy through the end of 2026. Objects large enough for this yield (roughly 10–20 meters or greater) are tracked with increasing precision via optical surveys and radar, while historical bolide data from JPL’s Fireball repository confirm such events occur only once every several decades on average. With most of the year elapsed and only smaller sub-kiloton airbursts recorded, trader consensus at 95% “No” reflects both the low base rate and the absence of any imminent threats. A realistic challenge would require discovery of a previously undetected decameter-scale body with a very short warning time, though ongoing surveys continue to reduce that residual uncertainty.