**Trader consensus favoring more than 8 landfalls (58.5% implied probability) reflects an above-normal 2026 Western North Pacific season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which typically shifts genesis eastward, prolongs storm tracks over warm waters, and favors northwestward recurvature toward China’s coast.** Multiple systems have already made landfall this year, including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Gaenari, and Narra, with Saudel poised for an East China Sea approach in late August amid a rare multi-storm episode. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others projected 7–9 impacts, near or above the long-term average of roughly 7–9 annual landfalls. Peak September–October activity, combined with model consensus on continued favorable steering and sea-surface temperatures, supports the elevated market-implied odds for totals exceeding historical norms, though late-season genesis and track variability remain key uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 59%
8 22%
7 13%
6 5.4%
$15,471 Vol.
$15,471 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
1%
5
1%
6
5%
7
13%
8
22%
Greater than 8
59%
Greater than 8 59%
8 22%
7 13%
6 5.4%
$15,471 Vol.
$15,471 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,132 Vol.
1%
5
$4,119 Vol.
1%
6
$2,607 Vol.
5%
7
$1,464 Vol.
13%
8
$2,052 Vol.
22%
Greater than 8
$4,097 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Trader consensus favoring more than 8 landfalls (58.5% implied probability) reflects an above-normal 2026 Western North Pacific season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which typically shifts genesis eastward, prolongs storm tracks over warm waters, and favors northwestward recurvature toward China’s coast.**
Multiple systems have already made landfall this year, including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Gaenari, and Narra, with Saudel poised for an East China Sea approach in late August amid a rare multi-storm episode. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others projected 7–9 impacts, near or above the long-term average of roughly 7–9 annual landfalls. Peak September–October activity, combined with model consensus on continued favorable steering and sea-surface temperatures, supports the elevated market-implied odds for totals exceeding historical norms, though late-season genesis and track variability remain key uncertainties.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$15,471End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Trader consensus favoring more than 8 landfalls (58.5% implied probability) reflects an above-normal 2026 Western North Pacific season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which typically shifts genesis eastward, prolongs storm tracks over warm waters, and favors northwestward recurvature toward China’s coast.**
Multiple systems have already made landfall this year, including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Gaenari, and Narra, with Saudel poised for an East China Sea approach in late August amid a rare multi-storm episode. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others projected 7–9 impacts, near or above the long-term average of roughly 7–9 annual landfalls. Peak September–October activity, combined with model consensus on continued favorable steering and sea-surface temperatures, supports the elevated market-implied odds for totals exceeding historical norms, though late-season genesis and track variability remain key uncertainties.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$15,471End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favoring more than 8 landfalls (58.5% implied probability) reflects an above-normal 2026 Western North Pacific season driven by a strengthening El Niño, which typically shifts genesis eastward, prolongs storm tracks over warm waters, and favors northwestward recurvature toward China’s coast.** Multiple systems have already made landfall this year, including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Gaenari, and Narra, with Saudel poised for an East China Sea approach in late August amid a rare multi-storm episode. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others projected 7–9 impacts, near or above the long-term average of roughly 7–9 annual landfalls. Peak September–October activity, combined with model consensus on continued favorable steering and sea-surface temperatures, supports the elevated market-implied odds for totals exceeding historical norms, though late-season genesis and track variability remain key uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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