Petr Yan's status as the reigning bantamweight champion after his unanimous decision victory over Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323 in December 2025 anchors the trader consensus at 61.5%, reflecting his four-fight win streak, striking volume, and head-to-head edge in their rivalry. The scheduled trilogy bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026, represents the primary near-term resolution path, with Merab's 35% implied probability tied to his elite wrestling and cardio despite the recent loss and admitted preparation adjustments. Lower probabilities for Song Yadong (2.1%) and others like Sean O'Malley or Cory Sandhagen stem from recent results—such as Song's knockout of Umar Nurmagomedov—and limited immediate title contention windows before year-end, underscoring the division's concentration around the top two contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPetr Yan 62%
Merab Dvalishvili 35%
Song Yadong 2.0%
Sean O'Malley <1%
$455,827 Vol.
$455,827 Vol.
Petr Yan
62%
Merab Dvalishvili
35%
Song Yadong
2%
Sean O'Malley
1%
Cory Sandhagen
<1%
David Martinez
<1%
Aiemann Zahabi
<1%
Marlon Vera
<1%
Mario Bautista
<1%
Umar Nurmagomedov
<1%
Deiveson Figueiredo
<1%
Petr Yan 62%
Merab Dvalishvili 35%
Song Yadong 2.0%
Sean O'Malley <1%
$455,827 Vol.
$455,827 Vol.
Petr Yan
62%
Merab Dvalishvili
35%
Song Yadong
2%
Sean O'Malley
1%
Cory Sandhagen
<1%
David Martinez
<1%
Aiemann Zahabi
<1%
Marlon Vera
<1%
Mario Bautista
<1%
Umar Nurmagomedov
<1%
Deiveson Figueiredo
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Petr Yan's status as the reigning bantamweight champion after his unanimous decision victory over Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323 in December 2025 anchors the trader consensus at 61.5%, reflecting his four-fight win streak, striking volume, and head-to-head edge in their rivalry. The scheduled trilogy bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026, represents the primary near-term resolution path, with Merab's 35% implied probability tied to his elite wrestling and cardio despite the recent loss and admitted preparation adjustments. Lower probabilities for Song Yadong (2.1%) and others like Sean O'Malley or Cory Sandhagen stem from recent results—such as Song's knockout of Umar Nurmagomedov—and limited immediate title contention windows before year-end, underscoring the division's concentration around the top two contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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