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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Justin Gaethje 84.9%

Arman Tsarukyan 6.3%

Mauricio Ruffy 4.8%

Charles Oliveira 4.7%

Polymarket

$674,249 Vol.

Justin Gaethje 84.9%

Arman Tsarukyan 6.3%

Mauricio Ruffy 4.8%

Charles Oliveira 4.7%

Polymarket

$674,249 Vol.

Ilia Topuria

$19,258 Vol.

3%

Arman Tsarukyan

$9,645 Vol.

6%

Charles Oliveira

$9,081 Vol.

5%

Max Holloway

$16,601 Vol.

<1%

Justin Gaethje

$26,941 Vol.

85%

Paddy Pimblett

$526,503 Vol.

1%

Dan Hooker

$2,174 Vol.

<1%

Mateusz Gamrot

$1,993 Vol.

<1%

Benoît Saint Denis

$53,922 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Fiziev

$2,086 Vol.

<1%

Renato Moicano

$2,429 Vol.

<1%

Mauricio Ruffy

$3,615 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Justin Gaethje captured the undisputed UFC lightweight title in June 2026 with a fourth-round corner stoppage of Ilia Topuria, marking a significant upset that aligned with his strong recent form and experience in high-stakes bouts. As of late August, Gaethje remains inactive due to lingering hand injuries from two fights earlier in the year, with no title defense scheduled before December 31. This timeline underpins the market's heavy consensus around him retaining the belt at year-end, while ranked contenders like Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, and Maurício Ruffy position themselves through upcoming matchups without an immediate path to dethrone the champion.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$674,249
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Justin Gaethje captured the undisputed UFC lightweight title in June 2026 with a fourth-round corner stoppage of Ilia Topuria, marking a significant upset that aligned with his strong recent form and experience in high-stakes bouts. As of late August, Gaethje remains inactive due to lingering hand injuries from two fights earlier in the year, with no title defense scheduled before December 31. This timeline underpins the market's heavy consensus around him retaining the belt at year-end, while ranked contenders like Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, and Maurício Ruffy position themselves through upcoming matchups without an immediate path to dethrone the champion.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$674,249
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Justin Gaethje" at 85%, followed by "Arman Tsarukyan" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $674.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Justin Gaethje" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Arman Tsarukyan" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.