Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions including Iran-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant factor pushing the U.S. national average regular gasoline price to approximately $4.43 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. This has lifted prices across all regions, though lower-cost areas such as the Gulf Coast and Midwest remain closest to the $3.75 threshold amid varying state taxes, refining margins, and distribution costs. EIA data show 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.84 per gallon in forecasts, with potential downside from any de-escalation or inventory builds, while near-term upside stems from persistent supply constraints and seasonal factors. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory reports and crude benchmarks like WTI for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 20, 2026
September 20
7%
September 30
13%
October 31
19%
$0.00 Vol.
September 20
$0 Vol.
7%
September 30
$0 Vol.
13%
October 31
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions including Iran-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant factor pushing the U.S. national average regular gasoline price to approximately $4.43 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. This has lifted prices across all regions, though lower-cost areas such as the Gulf Coast and Midwest remain closest to the $3.75 threshold amid varying state taxes, refining margins, and distribution costs. EIA data show 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.84 per gallon in forecasts, with potential downside from any de-escalation or inventory builds, while near-term upside stems from persistent supply constraints and seasonal factors. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory reports and crude benchmarks like WTI for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions including Iran-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant factor pushing the U.S. national average regular gasoline price to approximately $4.43 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. This has lifted prices across all regions, though lower-cost areas such as the Gulf Coast and Midwest remain closest to the $3.75 threshold amid varying state taxes, refining margins, and distribution costs. EIA data show 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.84 per gallon in forecasts, with potential downside from any de-escalation or inventory builds, while near-term upside stems from persistent supply constraints and seasonal factors. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory reports and crude benchmarks like WTI for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions including Iran-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant factor pushing the U.S. national average regular gasoline price to approximately $4.43 per gallon as of mid-September 2026. This has lifted prices across all regions, though lower-cost areas such as the Gulf Coast and Midwest remain closest to the $3.75 threshold amid varying state taxes, refining margins, and distribution costs. EIA data show 2026 retail gasoline averaging $3.84 per gallon in forecasts, with potential downside from any de-escalation or inventory builds, while near-term upside stems from persistent supply constraints and seasonal factors. Traders monitor weekly EIA inventory reports and crude benchmarks like WTI for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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