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Finance·Indonesia

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

icon for Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
Finance·Indonesia

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.MSCI’s June 2026 Market Classification Review deferred any downgrade decision to its November index review while acknowledging Indonesia’s transparency reforms, including expanded shareholder disclosures above 1%, a High Shareholding Concentration framework, and a phased rise in minimum free float to 15%. Recent measures, such as scrapping the IDR50 minimum trading price floor effective September 2026 to improve liquidity for 111 stocks, further address investability concerns that prompted the original January warning. With regulators accelerating implementation and no new adverse signals in the August review, market-implied odds of 87.5% against a downgrade by November 30 reflect trader consensus that consistent execution will satisfy MSCI criteria and avert frontier reclassification.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 11:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.MSCI’s June 2026 Market Classification Review deferred any downgrade decision to its November index review while acknowledging Indonesia’s transparency reforms, including expanded shareholder disclosures above 1%, a High Shareholding Concentration framework, and a phased rise in minimum free float to 15%. Recent measures, such as scrapping the IDR50 minimum trading price floor effective September 2026 to improve liquidity for 111 stocks, further address investability concerns that prompted the original January warning. With regulators accelerating implementation and no new adverse signals in the August review, market-implied odds of 87.5% against a downgrade by November 30 reflect trader consensus that consistent execution will satisfy MSCI criteria and avert frontier reclassification.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 11:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 13% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 13¢, the market collectively assigns a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" is 13% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.