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Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

icon for Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

$92,763 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$92,763 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$59 Vol.

3%

December 31

$61,165 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last met on the sidelines of the October 2025 APEC summit in South Korea, where they reaffirmed a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship” and “constructive and stable ties” while noting differences on security and trade issues.** Since then, bilateral relations have deteriorated sharply after Takaichi’s November 2025 parliamentary remarks linking a potential Chinese action against Taiwan to Japan’s right of collective self-defense, prompting Beijing to impose export controls on rare earths and dual-use goods, restrict tourism, and issue diplomatic protests. As of late August 2026, a cross-party Japanese lawmakers’ delegation visited Beijing in an effort to restore communication but made little headway; Chinese officials reiterated that Japan’s position on Taiwan remains the core obstacle. Scheduled multilateral opportunities, including China’s hosting of APEC in Shenzhen in November 2026, and additional Japanese delegations planned for September and later in the year, represent the main near-term channels that could facilitate another leader-level encounter. Ongoing economic frictions and security concerns continue to shape the timeline for any renewed summit.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$92,763
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last met on the sidelines of the October 2025 APEC summit in South Korea, where they reaffirmed a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship” and “constructive and stable ties” while noting differences on security and trade issues.** Since then, bilateral relations have deteriorated sharply after Takaichi’s November 2025 parliamentary remarks linking a potential Chinese action against Taiwan to Japan’s right of collective self-defense, prompting Beijing to impose export controls on rare earths and dual-use goods, restrict tourism, and issue diplomatic protests. As of late August 2026, a cross-party Japanese lawmakers’ delegation visited Beijing in an effort to restore communication but made little headway; Chinese officials reiterated that Japan’s position on Taiwan remains the core obstacle. Scheduled multilateral opportunities, including China’s hosting of APEC in Shenzhen in November 2026, and additional Japanese delegations planned for September and later in the year, represent the main near-term channels that could facilitate another leader-level encounter. Ongoing economic frictions and security concerns continue to shape the timeline for any renewed summit.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$92,763
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 49%, followed by "September 30" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" has generated $92.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" is "December 31" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.