Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6 points, consistent with forecasters projecting a national popular vote edge in that range ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterms. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic in which the president’s party faces headwinds, amplified here by President Trump’s approval ratings near 38-40% and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy. Redistricting changes have modestly aided Republicans in several states, yet the national environment and historical patterns continue to favor Democratic gains in the aggregate House vote. Trader consensus on margins of 6-12 points for Democrats aligns with these indicators, while the leading “Other” outcome accounts for variability in final turnout, late shifts, or outcomes outside the narrower listed bands. Upcoming primaries and additional polling through September will provide further signals before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 10-12% 24%
Democrats 6-8% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$125,825 Vol.
$125,825 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
<1%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
24%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
20%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
3%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 10-12% 24%
Democrats 6-8% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$125,825 Vol.
$125,825 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,236 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,545 Vol.
<1%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,214 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,193 Vol.
24%
Democrats 8-10%
$14,068 Vol.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$14,242 Vol.
20%
Democrats 4-6%
$6,719 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$15,303 Vol.
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$15,683 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,221 Vol.
3%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,609 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,956 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,835 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6 points, consistent with forecasters projecting a national popular vote edge in that range ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterms. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic in which the president’s party faces headwinds, amplified here by President Trump’s approval ratings near 38-40% and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy. Redistricting changes have modestly aided Republicans in several states, yet the national environment and historical patterns continue to favor Democratic gains in the aggregate House vote. Trader consensus on margins of 6-12 points for Democrats aligns with these indicators, while the leading “Other” outcome accounts for variability in final turnout, late shifts, or outcomes outside the narrower listed bands. Upcoming primaries and additional polling through September will provide further signals before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$125,825End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6 points, consistent with forecasters projecting a national popular vote edge in that range ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterms. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic in which the president’s party faces headwinds, amplified here by President Trump’s approval ratings near 38-40% and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy. Redistricting changes have modestly aided Republicans in several states, yet the national environment and historical patterns continue to favor Democratic gains in the aggregate House vote. Trader consensus on margins of 6-12 points for Democrats aligns with these indicators, while the leading “Other” outcome accounts for variability in final turnout, late shifts, or outcomes outside the narrower listed bands. Upcoming primaries and additional polling through September will provide further signals before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$125,825End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6 points, consistent with forecasters projecting a national popular vote edge in that range ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterms. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic in which the president’s party faces headwinds, amplified here by President Trump’s approval ratings near 38-40% and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy. Redistricting changes have modestly aided Republicans in several states, yet the national environment and historical patterns continue to favor Democratic gains in the aggregate House vote. Trader consensus on margins of 6-12 points for Democrats aligns with these indicators, while the leading “Other” outcome accounts for variability in final turnout, late shifts, or outcomes outside the narrower listed bands. Upcoming primaries and additional polling through September will provide further signals before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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