Elevated Democratic enthusiasm in 2026 primaries and special elections, driven by opposition to the Trump administration and its policy agenda, has produced higher-than-usual early participation even in Republican-leaning districts. This dynamic, alongside expanded mail and early voting access plus modest youth registration gains, supports trader clustering around 115-125 million total House votes. Offsetting factors include Republican mobilization of lower-propensity 2024 voters, historical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, and uncertainty over whether base turnout gaps will widen or narrow by November 3. Competitive House control battles and nationalized messaging on economic and immigration issues add volatility, keeping probabilities tightly distributed across adjacent brackets rather than consolidating on a single range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated120-125m 25%
115-120m 19%
125-130m 13%
130m+ 11.3%
$23,814 Vol.
$23,814 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
4%
100-105m
2%
105-110m
5%
110-115m
11%
115-120m
19%
120-125m
25%
125-130m
13%
130m+
11%
120-125m 25%
115-120m 19%
125-130m 13%
130m+ 11.3%
$23,814 Vol.
$23,814 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
$572 Vol.
1%
85-90m
$599 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,723 Vol.
1%
95-100m
$380 Vol.
4%
100-105m
$1,001 Vol.
2%
105-110m
$931 Vol.
5%
110-115m
$4,161 Vol.
11%
115-120m
$3,988 Vol.
19%
120-125m
$7,221 Vol.
25%
125-130m
$2,427 Vol.
13%
130m+
$812 Vol.
11%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Elevated Democratic enthusiasm in 2026 primaries and special elections, driven by opposition to the Trump administration and its policy agenda, has produced higher-than-usual early participation even in Republican-leaning districts. This dynamic, alongside expanded mail and early voting access plus modest youth registration gains, supports trader clustering around 115-125 million total House votes. Offsetting factors include Republican mobilization of lower-propensity 2024 voters, historical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, and uncertainty over whether base turnout gaps will widen or narrow by November 3. Competitive House control battles and nationalized messaging on economic and immigration issues add volatility, keeping probabilities tightly distributed across adjacent brackets rather than consolidating on a single range.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,814End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Elevated Democratic enthusiasm in 2026 primaries and special elections, driven by opposition to the Trump administration and its policy agenda, has produced higher-than-usual early participation even in Republican-leaning districts. This dynamic, alongside expanded mail and early voting access plus modest youth registration gains, supports trader clustering around 115-125 million total House votes. Offsetting factors include Republican mobilization of lower-propensity 2024 voters, historical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, and uncertainty over whether base turnout gaps will widen or narrow by November 3. Competitive House control battles and nationalized messaging on economic and immigration issues add volatility, keeping probabilities tightly distributed across adjacent brackets rather than consolidating on a single range.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$23,814End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Democratic enthusiasm in 2026 primaries and special elections, driven by opposition to the Trump administration and its policy agenda, has produced higher-than-usual early participation even in Republican-leaning districts. This dynamic, alongside expanded mail and early voting access plus modest youth registration gains, supports trader clustering around 115-125 million total House votes. Offsetting factors include Republican mobilization of lower-propensity 2024 voters, historical midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, and uncertainty over whether base turnout gaps will widen or narrow by November 3. Competitive House control battles and nationalized messaging on economic and immigration issues add volatility, keeping probabilities tightly distributed across adjacent brackets rather than consolidating on a single range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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