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icon for 2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick
Sports·NFL

2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick

icon for 2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick
Sports·NFL

2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick

Arch Manning 30%

CJ Carr 8%

Dante Moore 6.7%

David Stone 5.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Arch Manning 30%

CJ Carr 8%

Dante Moore 6.7%

David Stone 5.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Arch Manning

$954 Vol.

30%

CJ Carr

$42 Vol.

8%

Dante Moore

$533 Vol.

7%

David Stone

$353 Vol.

5%

Leonard Moore

$42 Vol.

5%

Dylan Stewart

$101 Vol.

5%

Duce Robinson

$42 Vol.

5%

LaNorris Sellers

$125 Vol.

5%

Brendan Sorsby

$42 Vol.

5%

Sam Leavitt

$42 Vol.

5%

John Mateer

$54 Vol.

5%

Trinidad Chambliss

$42 Vol.

5%

Julian Sayin

$42 Vol.

5%

Jordan Seaton

$172 Vol.

5%

Byrum Brown

$722 Vol.

4%

Darian Mensah

$67 Vol.

3%

Drew Mestemaker

$410 Vol.

3%

Ellis Robinson IV

$454 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arch Manning holds the clearest edge in trader consensus for the 2027 NFL Draft’s top selection, driven by his combination of elite physical tools, 6-foot-4 frame, arm talent, and football pedigree as the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. After an uneven start to his first full season as Texas’ starter in 2025, he showed noticeable growth down the stretch in decision-making and poise within a competitive SEC environment. Fellow quarterbacks Dante Moore of Oregon and CJ Carr of Notre Dame sit well behind at single-digit implied probabilities, reflecting Moore’s strong 2025 production and return for further development plus Carr’s solid redshirt-freshman campaign, though both trail in name recognition and perceived upside. The heavy concentration on signal-callers aligns with historical NFL Draft patterns favoring franchise quarterbacks, while non-QBs such as Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith register far lower odds. The 2026 college season’s results, particularly in high-profile matchups, will shape subsequent market movement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,243
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Arch Manning holds the clearest edge in trader consensus for the 2027 NFL Draft’s top selection, driven by his combination of elite physical tools, 6-foot-4 frame, arm talent, and football pedigree as the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. After an uneven start to his first full season as Texas’ starter in 2025, he showed noticeable growth down the stretch in decision-making and poise within a competitive SEC environment. Fellow quarterbacks Dante Moore of Oregon and CJ Carr of Notre Dame sit well behind at single-digit implied probabilities, reflecting Moore’s strong 2025 production and return for further development plus Carr’s solid redshirt-freshman campaign, though both trail in name recognition and perceived upside. The heavy concentration on signal-callers aligns with historical NFL Draft patterns favoring franchise quarterbacks, while non-QBs such as Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith register far lower odds. The 2026 college season’s results, particularly in high-profile matchups, will shape subsequent market movement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,243
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

NFL 2026
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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Arch Manning" at 30%, followed by "CJ Carr" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick" is "Arch Manning" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CJ Carr" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027 Pro Football Draft: 1st Overall Pick" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.