Apple’s current ~$4.6–4.7 trillion market cap reflects robust iPhone revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, fueled by the iPhone 17 cycle and early Apple Intelligence adoption, alongside record services revenue. The June 2026 WWDC unveiling of enhanced Siri AI and deeper on-device capabilities, rolling out with iOS 27 this fall, has reinforced trader views of Apple’s lower-capex AI approach as a competitive edge versus hyperscalers. Brief passage above $5 trillion in July and analyst price targets of $360–400 support the clustered 44.5% probability on the $4–5 trillion bands for year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the September product event, potential foldable iPhone momentum, CEO transition to John Ternus on September 1, and China rollout using Alibaba’s Qwen models, though memory cost pressures and high multiples introduce downside risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.00-$4.50T 22%
$4.50-$5.00T 22%
$5.00-$5.50T 18%
$3.50-$4.00T 11%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
6%
$3.50-$4.00T
11%
$4.00-$4.50T
22%
$4.50-$5.00T
22%
$5.00-$5.50T
18%
$5.50-$6.00T
10%
$6.00T+
10%
$4.00-$4.50T 22%
$4.50-$5.00T 22%
$5.00-$5.50T 18%
$3.50-$4.00T 11%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$3.50T
$390 Vol.
6%
$3.50-$4.00T
$62 Vol.
11%
$4.00-$4.50T
$608 Vol.
22%
$4.50-$5.00T
$116 Vol.
22%
$5.00-$5.50T
$42 Vol.
18%
$5.50-$6.00T
$152 Vol.
10%
$6.00T+
$84 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s current ~$4.6–4.7 trillion market cap reflects robust iPhone revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, fueled by the iPhone 17 cycle and early Apple Intelligence adoption, alongside record services revenue. The June 2026 WWDC unveiling of enhanced Siri AI and deeper on-device capabilities, rolling out with iOS 27 this fall, has reinforced trader views of Apple’s lower-capex AI approach as a competitive edge versus hyperscalers. Brief passage above $5 trillion in July and analyst price targets of $360–400 support the clustered 44.5% probability on the $4–5 trillion bands for year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the September product event, potential foldable iPhone momentum, CEO transition to John Ternus on September 1, and China rollout using Alibaba’s Qwen models, though memory cost pressures and high multiples introduce downside risks.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,455End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s current ~$4.6–4.7 trillion market cap reflects robust iPhone revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, fueled by the iPhone 17 cycle and early Apple Intelligence adoption, alongside record services revenue. The June 2026 WWDC unveiling of enhanced Siri AI and deeper on-device capabilities, rolling out with iOS 27 this fall, has reinforced trader views of Apple’s lower-capex AI approach as a competitive edge versus hyperscalers. Brief passage above $5 trillion in July and analyst price targets of $360–400 support the clustered 44.5% probability on the $4–5 trillion bands for year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the September product event, potential foldable iPhone momentum, CEO transition to John Ternus on September 1, and China rollout using Alibaba’s Qwen models, though memory cost pressures and high multiples introduce downside risks.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,455End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s current ~$4.6–4.7 trillion market cap reflects robust iPhone revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, fueled by the iPhone 17 cycle and early Apple Intelligence adoption, alongside record services revenue. The June 2026 WWDC unveiling of enhanced Siri AI and deeper on-device capabilities, rolling out with iOS 27 this fall, has reinforced trader views of Apple’s lower-capex AI approach as a competitive edge versus hyperscalers. Brief passage above $5 trillion in July and analyst price targets of $360–400 support the clustered 44.5% probability on the $4–5 trillion bands for year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include the September product event, potential foldable iPhone momentum, CEO transition to John Ternus on September 1, and China rollout using Alibaba’s Qwen models, though memory cost pressures and high multiples introduce downside risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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