Recent July labor data, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000, alongside persistently low initial claims near 203,000, anchor trader expectations for the August reading. Stable continuing claims and limited layoffs signal a balanced but cooling market, supporting the 36% implied probability on 4.1% and 30.5% on 4.2% as the leading outcomes. Consensus forecasts range from 4.1% to 4.2%, with modest payroll rebounds anticipated but offset by potential labor-force participation shifts. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether July’s softness reverses or persists into the September 4 release, against a backdrop of Fed monitoring of wage trends and inflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.1% 37%
4.2% 32%
4.3% 14%
4.0% 14%
$21,946 Vol.
$21,946 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
14%
4.1%
37%
4.2%
32%
4.3%
14%
4.4%
3%
4.5%
2%
≥4.6%
3%
4.1% 37%
4.2% 32%
4.3% 14%
4.0% 14%
$21,946 Vol.
$21,946 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$551 Vol.
1%
3.9%
$743 Vol.
5%
4.0%
$3,006 Vol.
14%
4.1%
$6,882 Vol.
37%
4.2%
$5,699 Vol.
32%
4.3%
$3,408 Vol.
14%
4.4%
$668 Vol.
3%
4.5%
$479 Vol.
2%
≥4.6%
$510 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July labor data, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000, alongside persistently low initial claims near 203,000, anchor trader expectations for the August reading. Stable continuing claims and limited layoffs signal a balanced but cooling market, supporting the 36% implied probability on 4.1% and 30.5% on 4.2% as the leading outcomes. Consensus forecasts range from 4.1% to 4.2%, with modest payroll rebounds anticipated but offset by potential labor-force participation shifts. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether July’s softness reverses or persists into the September 4 release, against a backdrop of Fed monitoring of wage trends and inflation.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$21,946End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July labor data, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000, alongside persistently low initial claims near 203,000, anchor trader expectations for the August reading. Stable continuing claims and limited layoffs signal a balanced but cooling market, supporting the 36% implied probability on 4.1% and 30.5% on 4.2% as the leading outcomes. Consensus forecasts range from 4.1% to 4.2%, with modest payroll rebounds anticipated but offset by potential labor-force participation shifts. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether July’s softness reverses or persists into the September 4 release, against a backdrop of Fed monitoring of wage trends and inflation.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$21,946End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July labor data, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000, alongside persistently low initial claims near 203,000, anchor trader expectations for the August reading. Stable continuing claims and limited layoffs signal a balanced but cooling market, supporting the 36% implied probability on 4.1% and 30.5% on 4.2% as the leading outcomes. Consensus forecasts range from 4.1% to 4.2%, with modest payroll rebounds anticipated but offset by potential labor-force participation shifts. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether July’s softness reverses or persists into the September 4 release, against a backdrop of Fed monitoring of wage trends and inflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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