The 2026-27 Bundesliga campaign opens with three newly promoted sides—Schalke 04, SV Elversberg, and SC Paderborn—replacing Wolfsburg, Heidenheim, and St. Pauli, creating immediate pressure on the bottom of the table. Historical patterns show promoted clubs often battle relegation due to squad depth gaps and adaptation challenges, with Opta simulations assigning Schalke the highest risk at roughly 24% amid their return after years away. Established mid-to-lower table sides such as 1. FC Köln, Werder Bremen, and Hamburger SV also face elevated probabilities around 20-22% given defensive vulnerabilities exposed last season and the need for immediate integration of summer signings. Factors like early-season form, injury management, and the 16th-place playoff spot will shape outcomes through the winter break.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC Paderborn
62%
Werder Bremen
54%
1. FC Köln
50%
Union Berlin
50%
VfB Stuttgart
50%
FC Schalke 04
50%
Hamburger SV
50%
Mainz 05
50%
SC Freiburg
50%
SV Elversberg
48%
FC Augsburg
46%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
44%
Eintracht Frankfurt
39%
TSG Hoffenheim
38%
RB Leipzig
28%
Bayer Leverkusen
21%
Borussia Dortmund
21%
Bayern Munich
21%
$0.00 Vol.
SC Paderborn
62%
Werder Bremen
54%
1. FC Köln
50%
Union Berlin
50%
VfB Stuttgart
50%
FC Schalke 04
50%
Hamburger SV
50%
Mainz 05
50%
SC Freiburg
50%
SV Elversberg
48%
FC Augsburg
46%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
44%
Eintracht Frankfurt
39%
TSG Hoffenheim
38%
RB Leipzig
28%
Bayer Leverkusen
21%
Borussia Dortmund
21%
Bayern Munich
21%
Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Bundesliga for the following season through their final standing in the 2026-27 Bundesliga, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Bundesliga.
If the 2026-27 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in Bundesliga for the following season through their final standing in the 2026-27 Bundesliga, via relegation playoff defeat, or by any other official league decision recognized by Bundesliga.
If the 2026-27 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026-27 Bundesliga campaign opens with three newly promoted sides—Schalke 04, SV Elversberg, and SC Paderborn—replacing Wolfsburg, Heidenheim, and St. Pauli, creating immediate pressure on the bottom of the table. Historical patterns show promoted clubs often battle relegation due to squad depth gaps and adaptation challenges, with Opta simulations assigning Schalke the highest risk at roughly 24% amid their return after years away. Established mid-to-lower table sides such as 1. FC Köln, Werder Bremen, and Hamburger SV also face elevated probabilities around 20-22% given defensive vulnerabilities exposed last season and the need for immediate integration of summer signings. Factors like early-season form, injury management, and the 16th-place playoff spot will shape outcomes through the winter break.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions