Persistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside a federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against an emergency Fed rate cut before 2027. The FOMC has signaled a focus on returning inflation to target, with minutes and projections showing no anticipated easing until at least early 2027 amid solid economic activity and mixed but stable labor data at 4.1% unemployment. Trader consensus, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects this hawkish tilt and the absence of acute crisis signals. A sharp deterioration in growth, escalation in geopolitical tensions disrupting markets, or rapid labor market weakening could still prompt a surprise move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$151,111 Vol.
$151,111 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$151,111 Vol.
$151,111 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside a federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against an emergency Fed rate cut before 2027. The FOMC has signaled a focus on returning inflation to target, with minutes and projections showing no anticipated easing until at least early 2027 amid solid economic activity and mixed but stable labor data at 4.1% unemployment. Trader consensus, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects this hawkish tilt and the absence of acute crisis signals. A sharp deterioration in growth, escalation in geopolitical tensions disrupting markets, or rapid labor market weakening could still prompt a surprise move.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$151,111End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside a federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against an emergency Fed rate cut before 2027. The FOMC has signaled a focus on returning inflation to target, with minutes and projections showing no anticipated easing until at least early 2027 amid solid economic activity and mixed but stable labor data at 4.1% unemployment. Trader consensus, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects this hawkish tilt and the absence of acute crisis signals. A sharp deterioration in growth, escalation in geopolitical tensions disrupting markets, or rapid labor market weakening could still prompt a surprise move.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$151,111End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside a federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against an emergency Fed rate cut before 2027. The FOMC has signaled a focus on returning inflation to target, with minutes and projections showing no anticipated easing until at least early 2027 amid solid economic activity and mixed but stable labor data at 4.1% unemployment. Trader consensus, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects this hawkish tilt and the absence of acute crisis signals. A sharp deterioration in growth, escalation in geopolitical tensions disrupting markets, or rapid labor market weakening could still prompt a surprise move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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