The 2026 United Left primary faces a 93% trader-implied probability of cancellation due to repeated refusals by major participants in the New Popular Front coalition. The Socialist Party’s July 2026 member vote rejected involvement in favor of a closed primary with Place Publique, while La France Insoumise, the Communist Party, and Place Publique never joined. Withdrawals by Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy further narrowed the field to smaller groups such as Les Écologistes and Debout!. Recent statements, including confirmation that the initiative “a définitivement échoué,” have reinforced this trajectory ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. A reversal would require unexpected re-engagement by the Socialist Party or a last-minute agreement among remaining smaller movements, though both paths face significant institutional and timing barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanceled 93.2%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$210,905 Vol.
$210,905 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Canceled
93%
Marine Tondelier
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Canceled 93.2%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$210,905 Vol.
$210,905 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Canceled
$75,193 Vol.
93%
Marine Tondelier
$49,788 Vol.
1%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,369 Vol.
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The 2026 United Left primary faces a 93% trader-implied probability of cancellation due to repeated refusals by major participants in the New Popular Front coalition. The Socialist Party’s July 2026 member vote rejected involvement in favor of a closed primary with Place Publique, while La France Insoumise, the Communist Party, and Place Publique never joined. Withdrawals by Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy further narrowed the field to smaller groups such as Les Écologistes and Debout!. Recent statements, including confirmation that the initiative “a définitivement échoué,” have reinforced this trajectory ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. A reversal would require unexpected re-engagement by the Socialist Party or a last-minute agreement among remaining smaller movements, though both paths face significant institutional and timing barriers.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$210,905End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The 2026 United Left primary faces a 93% trader-implied probability of cancellation due to repeated refusals by major participants in the New Popular Front coalition. The Socialist Party’s July 2026 member vote rejected involvement in favor of a closed primary with Place Publique, while La France Insoumise, the Communist Party, and Place Publique never joined. Withdrawals by Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy further narrowed the field to smaller groups such as Les Écologistes and Debout!. Recent statements, including confirmation that the initiative “a définitivement échoué,” have reinforced this trajectory ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. A reversal would require unexpected re-engagement by the Socialist Party or a last-minute agreement among remaining smaller movements, though both paths face significant institutional and timing barriers.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$210,905End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary faces a 93% trader-implied probability of cancellation due to repeated refusals by major participants in the New Popular Front coalition. The Socialist Party’s July 2026 member vote rejected involvement in favor of a closed primary with Place Publique, while La France Insoumise, the Communist Party, and Place Publique never joined. Withdrawals by Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy further narrowed the field to smaller groups such as Les Écologistes and Debout!. Recent statements, including confirmation that the initiative “a définitivement échoué,” have reinforced this trajectory ahead of the scheduled October 11 vote. A reversal would require unexpected re-engagement by the Socialist Party or a last-minute agreement among remaining smaller movements, though both paths face significant institutional and timing barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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