Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from 8% in Pew’s July 2026 survey to 18% in Morning Consult’s September tracker, with other outlets like Echelon Insights reporting figures near 19% earlier in the cycle. These levels reflect gains from the low single digits typical before 2024 but also subsequent softening tied to economic concerns and presidential approval trends. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–13% captures uncertainty over final turnout among key subgroups, the durability of any 2024 shifts, and the impact of campaign messaging on working-class and younger Black voters ahead of November. Scheduled debates and economic data releases before Election Day could widen or narrow the eventual share.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10–11% 30%
8–9% 29%
12–13% 23%
14–15% 9.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
7%
8–9%
29%
10–11%
30%
12–13%
23%
14–15%
9%
16–17%
6%
18%+
3%
10–11% 30%
8–9% 29%
12–13% 23%
14–15% 9.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
$80 Vol.
7%
8–9%
$802 Vol.
29%
10–11%
$622 Vol.
30%
12–13%
$369 Vol.
23%
14–15%
$220 Vol.
9%
16–17%
$20 Vol.
6%
18%+
$101 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from 8% in Pew’s July 2026 survey to 18% in Morning Consult’s September tracker, with other outlets like Echelon Insights reporting figures near 19% earlier in the cycle. These levels reflect gains from the low single digits typical before 2024 but also subsequent softening tied to economic concerns and presidential approval trends. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–13% captures uncertainty over final turnout among key subgroups, the durability of any 2024 shifts, and the impact of campaign messaging on working-class and younger Black voters ahead of November. Scheduled debates and economic data releases before Election Day could widen or narrow the eventual share.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$2,214End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from 8% in Pew’s July 2026 survey to 18% in Morning Consult’s September tracker, with other outlets like Echelon Insights reporting figures near 19% earlier in the cycle. These levels reflect gains from the low single digits typical before 2024 but also subsequent softening tied to economic concerns and presidential approval trends. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–13% captures uncertainty over final turnout among key subgroups, the durability of any 2024 shifts, and the impact of campaign messaging on working-class and younger Black voters ahead of November. Scheduled debates and economic data releases before Election Day could widen or narrow the eventual share.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$2,214End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from 8% in Pew’s July 2026 survey to 18% in Morning Consult’s September tracker, with other outlets like Echelon Insights reporting figures near 19% earlier in the cycle. These levels reflect gains from the low single digits typical before 2024 but also subsequent softening tied to economic concerns and presidential approval trends. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 8–13% captures uncertainty over final turnout among key subgroups, the durability of any 2024 shifts, and the impact of campaign messaging on working-class and younger Black voters ahead of November. Scheduled debates and economic data releases before Election Day could widen or narrow the eventual share.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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