Recent polling indicates Democratic candidates hold substantial leads among Latino voters on the generic congressional ballot, including among men, with margins often exceeding 20 points in battleground samples. This reflects a reversal from 2024, when Republicans made gains with Latino men, driven by dissatisfaction with economic conditions and immigration enforcement under the current administration. Multiple surveys from August and September 2026, including those from Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision and BSP Research, show Latino registered voters favoring Democrats by 23 points or more in competitive districts, with similar patterns in national UnidosUS and Pew data. A pronounced gender gap persists, with Latinas expressing stronger priorities around immigrant protections and opposition to administration policies, though Latino men have also shifted toward Democrats amid broader economic concerns. These trends have produced trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for Democrats to win Latino men, consistent with historical midterm base rates where the opposition party often consolidates support from demographic groups that moved in the prior presidential cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include final campaign messaging on prices, border issues, and turnout efforts through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Democrats
87%
Republicans
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Democrats
$1,145 Vol.
87%
Republicans
$115 Vol.
13%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Recent polling indicates Democratic candidates hold substantial leads among Latino voters on the generic congressional ballot, including among men, with margins often exceeding 20 points in battleground samples. This reflects a reversal from 2024, when Republicans made gains with Latino men, driven by dissatisfaction with economic conditions and immigration enforcement under the current administration. Multiple surveys from August and September 2026, including those from Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision and BSP Research, show Latino registered voters favoring Democrats by 23 points or more in competitive districts, with similar patterns in national UnidosUS and Pew data. A pronounced gender gap persists, with Latinas expressing stronger priorities around immigrant protections and opposition to administration policies, though Latino men have also shifted toward Democrats amid broader economic concerns. These trends have produced trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for Democrats to win Latino men, consistent with historical midterm base rates where the opposition party often consolidates support from demographic groups that moved in the prior presidential cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include final campaign messaging on prices, border issues, and turnout efforts through November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,259End Date
Nov 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Recent polling indicates Democratic candidates hold substantial leads among Latino voters on the generic congressional ballot, including among men, with margins often exceeding 20 points in battleground samples. This reflects a reversal from 2024, when Republicans made gains with Latino men, driven by dissatisfaction with economic conditions and immigration enforcement under the current administration. Multiple surveys from August and September 2026, including those from Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision and BSP Research, show Latino registered voters favoring Democrats by 23 points or more in competitive districts, with similar patterns in national UnidosUS and Pew data. A pronounced gender gap persists, with Latinas expressing stronger priorities around immigrant protections and opposition to administration policies, though Latino men have also shifted toward Democrats amid broader economic concerns. These trends have produced trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for Democrats to win Latino men, consistent with historical midterm base rates where the opposition party often consolidates support from demographic groups that moved in the prior presidential cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include final campaign messaging on prices, border issues, and turnout efforts through November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,259End Date
Nov 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling indicates Democratic candidates hold substantial leads among Latino voters on the generic congressional ballot, including among men, with margins often exceeding 20 points in battleground samples. This reflects a reversal from 2024, when Republicans made gains with Latino men, driven by dissatisfaction with economic conditions and immigration enforcement under the current administration. Multiple surveys from August and September 2026, including those from Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision and BSP Research, show Latino registered voters favoring Democrats by 23 points or more in competitive districts, with similar patterns in national UnidosUS and Pew data. A pronounced gender gap persists, with Latinas expressing stronger priorities around immigrant protections and opposition to administration policies, though Latino men have also shifted toward Democrats amid broader economic concerns. These trends have produced trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for Democrats to win Latino men, consistent with historical midterm base rates where the opposition party often consolidates support from demographic groups that moved in the prior presidential cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include final campaign messaging on prices, border issues, and turnout efforts through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions