OpenAI’s pursuit of up to a $1 trillion IPO valuation, against its $852 billion March 2026 post-money mark after a record $122 billion private round, remains the dominant driver of Polymarket odds on offering size. With annualized revenue now exceeding $40 billion and a confidential S-1 filed in June, traders weigh the company’s capital needs for compute infrastructure against Altman’s rejection of any valuation below $1 trillion, which has shifted expected timing to 2027. This creates a tight contest between sub-$30 billion and $40–50 billion outcomes, as high private funding already secured liquidity while strong AI demand supports larger raises if market multiples hold near 25–40x revenue. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader tech IPO reception will likely resolve the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
<$30B 27.5%
$80B–$90B 20.8%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$100B+ 17%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
27%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
22%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
9%
$70B–$80B
10%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
4%
$100B+
17%
<$30B 27.5%
$80B–$90B 20.8%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$100B+ 17%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
$603 Vol.
27%
$30B–$40B
$463 Vol.
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 Vol.
22%
$50B–$60B
$1,151 Vol.
6%
$60B–$70B
$496 Vol.
9%
$70B–$80B
$489 Vol.
10%
$80B–$90B
$448 Vol.
21%
$90B–$100B
$306 Vol.
4%
$100B+
$637 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s pursuit of up to a $1 trillion IPO valuation, against its $852 billion March 2026 post-money mark after a record $122 billion private round, remains the dominant driver of Polymarket odds on offering size. With annualized revenue now exceeding $40 billion and a confidential S-1 filed in June, traders weigh the company’s capital needs for compute infrastructure against Altman’s rejection of any valuation below $1 trillion, which has shifted expected timing to 2027. This creates a tight contest between sub-$30 billion and $40–50 billion outcomes, as high private funding already secured liquidity while strong AI demand supports larger raises if market multiples hold near 25–40x revenue. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader tech IPO reception will likely resolve the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,214End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s pursuit of up to a $1 trillion IPO valuation, against its $852 billion March 2026 post-money mark after a record $122 billion private round, remains the dominant driver of Polymarket odds on offering size. With annualized revenue now exceeding $40 billion and a confidential S-1 filed in June, traders weigh the company’s capital needs for compute infrastructure against Altman’s rejection of any valuation below $1 trillion, which has shifted expected timing to 2027. This creates a tight contest between sub-$30 billion and $40–50 billion outcomes, as high private funding already secured liquidity while strong AI demand supports larger raises if market multiples hold near 25–40x revenue. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader tech IPO reception will likely resolve the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,214End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s pursuit of up to a $1 trillion IPO valuation, against its $852 billion March 2026 post-money mark after a record $122 billion private round, remains the dominant driver of Polymarket odds on offering size. With annualized revenue now exceeding $40 billion and a confidential S-1 filed in June, traders weigh the company’s capital needs for compute infrastructure against Altman’s rejection of any valuation below $1 trillion, which has shifted expected timing to 2027. This creates a tight contest between sub-$30 billion and $40–50 billion outcomes, as high private funding already secured liquidity while strong AI demand supports larger raises if market multiples hold near 25–40x revenue. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader tech IPO reception will likely resolve the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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