**President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against federal immigration enforcement operations, yet the administration has not done so as of late August 2026.** Trader probabilities remain low because officials have relied on other authorities for domestic deployments, faced court restrictions such as in Trump v. Illinois, and received internal recommendations against invocation due to limited border crossings and potential political costs. Key recent developments include January 2026 protests in Minnesota following an ICE shooting that killed a civilian, renewed threats tied to deportation efforts in Democratic-led cities, and reported internal debates in mid-2026 over using the statute to address unrest. The 2026 midterm elections represent a notable upcoming window where conditions could shift if civil disorder escalates or other legal options narrow further. Markets reflect trader consensus that formal invocation stays unlikely without a clear escalation meeting the statute’s narrow historical application.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedInsurrection Act invoked by...?
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
$1,127,013 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
2%
December 31
16%
$1,127,013 Vol.
September 30
$34 Vol.
2%
December 31
$160,891 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against federal immigration enforcement operations, yet the administration has not done so as of late August 2026.**
Trader probabilities remain low because officials have relied on other authorities for domestic deployments, faced court restrictions such as in Trump v. Illinois, and received internal recommendations against invocation due to limited border crossings and potential political costs. Key recent developments include January 2026 protests in Minnesota following an ICE shooting that killed a civilian, renewed threats tied to deportation efforts in Democratic-led cities, and reported internal debates in mid-2026 over using the statute to address unrest. The 2026 midterm elections represent a notable upcoming window where conditions could shift if civil disorder escalates or other legal options narrow further. Markets reflect trader consensus that formal invocation stays unlikely without a clear escalation meeting the statute’s narrow historical application.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$1,127,013End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against federal immigration enforcement operations, yet the administration has not done so as of late August 2026.**
Trader probabilities remain low because officials have relied on other authorities for domestic deployments, faced court restrictions such as in Trump v. Illinois, and received internal recommendations against invocation due to limited border crossings and potential political costs. Key recent developments include January 2026 protests in Minnesota following an ICE shooting that killed a civilian, renewed threats tied to deportation efforts in Democratic-led cities, and reported internal debates in mid-2026 over using the statute to address unrest. The 2026 midterm elections represent a notable upcoming window where conditions could shift if civil disorder escalates or other legal options narrow further. Markets reflect trader consensus that formal invocation stays unlikely without a clear escalation meeting the statute’s narrow historical application.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,127,013End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against federal immigration enforcement operations, yet the administration has not done so as of late August 2026.** Trader probabilities remain low because officials have relied on other authorities for domestic deployments, faced court restrictions such as in Trump v. Illinois, and received internal recommendations against invocation due to limited border crossings and potential political costs. Key recent developments include January 2026 protests in Minnesota following an ICE shooting that killed a civilian, renewed threats tied to deportation efforts in Democratic-led cities, and reported internal debates in mid-2026 over using the statute to address unrest. The 2026 midterm elections represent a notable upcoming window where conditions could shift if civil disorder escalates or other legal options narrow further. Markets reflect trader consensus that formal invocation stays unlikely without a clear escalation meeting the statute’s narrow historical application.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions