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icon for Tim Walz in jail by...?
Politics·Minnesota Unrest

Tim Walz in jail by...?

icon for Tim Walz in jail by...?
Politics·Minnesota Unrest

Tim Walz in jail by...?

$52,132 Vol.

Mar 30, 2026
Polymarket

$52,132 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2026

$17,255 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal investigations into Minnesota's multibillion-dollar social services fraud and separate probes into state officials' handling of federal immigration enforcement form the core drivers behind the low implied probability that Tim Walz will serve jail time by December 31, 2026. A June 2026 House Oversight report alleged senior officials, including Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, received fraud warnings years earlier yet delayed action on programs like Medicaid housing and behavioral services; Vice President JD Vance referred the matter to the DOJ for potential criminal review. Parallel DOJ scrutiny examined claims of obstruction during 2026 immigration operations in Minnesota, though a federal judge later blocked related subpoenas as retaliatory. Walz abandoned his reelection bid in January 2026 amid the pressure, and an impeachment resolution was introduced in the state House, but no indictments or charges have named the governor. Traders appear to weigh the high evidentiary threshold and institutional protections for sitting executives against ongoing probes and political referrals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,132
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal investigations into Minnesota's multibillion-dollar social services fraud and separate probes into state officials' handling of federal immigration enforcement form the core drivers behind the low implied probability that Tim Walz will serve jail time by December 31, 2026. A June 2026 House Oversight report alleged senior officials, including Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, received fraud warnings years earlier yet delayed action on programs like Medicaid housing and behavioral services; Vice President JD Vance referred the matter to the DOJ for potential criminal review. Parallel DOJ scrutiny examined claims of obstruction during 2026 immigration operations in Minnesota, though a federal judge later blocked related subpoenas as retaliatory. Walz abandoned his reelection bid in January 2026 amid the pressure, and an impeachment resolution was introduced in the state House, but no indictments or charges have named the governor. Traders appear to weigh the high evidentiary threshold and institutional protections for sitting executives against ongoing probes and political referrals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,132
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tim Walz in jail by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 6%, followed by "March 31, 2026" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tim Walz in jail by...?" has generated $52.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Tim Walz in jail by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Tim Walz in jail by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at just 6%, with "March 31, 2026" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Tim Walz in jail by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.