**Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, followed by a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have shaped trader views on whether Tehran will formally agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.** The interim accord focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, down-blending existing highly enriched uranium stockpiles on-site under IAEA supervision, and maintaining the nuclear status quo during follow-on talks, but it explicitly deferred detailed limits on enrichment itself to a final deal. Iran has continued to protect and relocate thousands of centrifuges to fortified underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, signaling efforts to preserve enrichment infrastructure despite damage to declared facilities. IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps, restricted inspector access to key sites, and uncertainty over the location and status of near-weapons-grade material. U.S. statements have emphasized that a comprehensive agreement would need to address enrichment curbs, yet Iranian positions and actions indicate resistance to a complete halt. These developments—combined with the short remaining timeline and lack of breakthrough in post-MOU negotiations—support the current trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$1,671,309 Vol.
$1,671,309 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$1,671,309 Vol.
$1,671,309 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, followed by a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have shaped trader views on whether Tehran will formally agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.** The interim accord focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, down-blending existing highly enriched uranium stockpiles on-site under IAEA supervision, and maintaining the nuclear status quo during follow-on talks, but it explicitly deferred detailed limits on enrichment itself to a final deal.
Iran has continued to protect and relocate thousands of centrifuges to fortified underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, signaling efforts to preserve enrichment infrastructure despite damage to declared facilities. IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps, restricted inspector access to key sites, and uncertainty over the location and status of near-weapons-grade material. U.S. statements have emphasized that a comprehensive agreement would need to address enrichment curbs, yet Iranian positions and actions indicate resistance to a complete halt. These developments—combined with the short remaining timeline and lack of breakthrough in post-MOU negotiations—support the current trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,671,309End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, followed by a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have shaped trader views on whether Tehran will formally agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.** The interim accord focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, down-blending existing highly enriched uranium stockpiles on-site under IAEA supervision, and maintaining the nuclear status quo during follow-on talks, but it explicitly deferred detailed limits on enrichment itself to a final deal.
Iran has continued to protect and relocate thousands of centrifuges to fortified underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, signaling efforts to preserve enrichment infrastructure despite damage to declared facilities. IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps, restricted inspector access to key sites, and uncertainty over the location and status of near-weapons-grade material. U.S. statements have emphasized that a comprehensive agreement would need to address enrichment curbs, yet Iranian positions and actions indicate resistance to a complete halt. These developments—combined with the short remaining timeline and lack of breakthrough in post-MOU negotiations—support the current trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,671,309End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026, followed by a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, have shaped trader views on whether Tehran will formally agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.** The interim accord focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, down-blending existing highly enriched uranium stockpiles on-site under IAEA supervision, and maintaining the nuclear status quo during follow-on talks, but it explicitly deferred detailed limits on enrichment itself to a final deal. Iran has continued to protect and relocate thousands of centrifuges to fortified underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, signaling efforts to preserve enrichment infrastructure despite damage to declared facilities. IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps, restricted inspector access to key sites, and uncertainty over the location and status of near-weapons-grade material. U.S. statements have emphasized that a comprehensive agreement would need to address enrichment curbs, yet Iranian positions and actions indicate resistance to a complete halt. These developments—combined with the short remaining timeline and lack of breakthrough in post-MOU negotiations—support the current trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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