Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble or in damaged tunnels. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed both sides to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with provisions for IAEA-supervised down-blending or removal of highly enriched material and resumed verification at affected sites. Reports through August 2026 indicate no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activity, limited IAEA access outside Bushehr, and ongoing diplomatic negotiations amid economic pressures on Tehran. These factors underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, though a collapse in talks, undetected material diversion, or accelerated covert reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still alter the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$249,002 Vol.
$249,002 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
$249,002 Vol.
$249,002 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble or in damaged tunnels. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed both sides to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with provisions for IAEA-supervised down-blending or removal of highly enriched material and resumed verification at affected sites. Reports through August 2026 indicate no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activity, limited IAEA access outside Bushehr, and ongoing diplomatic negotiations amid economic pressures on Tehran. These factors underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, though a collapse in talks, undetected material diversion, or accelerated covert reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$249,002End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble or in damaged tunnels. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed both sides to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with provisions for IAEA-supervised down-blending or removal of highly enriched material and resumed verification at affected sites. Reports through August 2026 indicate no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activity, limited IAEA access outside Bushehr, and ongoing diplomatic negotiations amid economic pressures on Tehran. These factors underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, though a collapse in talks, undetected material diversion, or accelerated covert reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$249,002End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble or in damaged tunnels. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed both sides to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with provisions for IAEA-supervised down-blending or removal of highly enriched material and resumed verification at affected sites. Reports through August 2026 indicate no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activity, limited IAEA access outside Bushehr, and ongoing diplomatic negotiations amid economic pressures on Tehran. These factors underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027, though a collapse in talks, undetected material diversion, or accelerated covert reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain could still alter the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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