President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing alleged adversary activities below the zero-yield threshold. Administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve non-explosive subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has maintained its post-1992 moratorium through annual certifications relying on simulations and non-nuclear experiments, with no explosive test conducted despite New START's February 2026 expiration. Congressional oversight and technical assessments have reinforced that explosive testing is unnecessary for reliability, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution windows. Any shift would require a presidential decision overcoming legal, diplomatic, and verification hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$794,139 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
5%
$794,139 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,403 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$75,925 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing alleged adversary activities below the zero-yield threshold. Administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve non-explosive subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has maintained its post-1992 moratorium through annual certifications relying on simulations and non-nuclear experiments, with no explosive test conducted despite New START's February 2026 expiration. Congressional oversight and technical assessments have reinforced that explosive testing is unnecessary for reliability, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution windows. Any shift would require a presidential decision overcoming legal, diplomatic, and verification hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,139End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing alleged adversary activities below the zero-yield threshold. Administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve non-explosive subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has maintained its post-1992 moratorium through annual certifications relying on simulations and non-nuclear experiments, with no explosive test conducted despite New START's February 2026 expiration. Congressional oversight and technical assessments have reinforced that explosive testing is unnecessary for reliability, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution windows. Any shift would require a presidential decision overcoming legal, diplomatic, and verification hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,139End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing alleged adversary activities below the zero-yield threshold. Administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve non-explosive subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has maintained its post-1992 moratorium through annual certifications relying on simulations and non-nuclear experiments, with no explosive test conducted despite New START's February 2026 expiration. Congressional oversight and technical assessments have reinforced that explosive testing is unnecessary for reliability, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution windows. Any shift would require a presidential decision overcoming legal, diplomatic, and verification hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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