**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding have driven the high probability against congressional approval of a final Iran deal this year.** The MOU launched a 60-day window for talks on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, a proposed reconstruction fund, and nuclear limits, but the August 17 deadline passed without agreement amid disputes over verification, enrichment, ballistic missiles, and funding conditions. Lawmakers from both parties have invoked the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act for formal review and a potential disapproval resolution, citing concerns over enforcement, proxy support, and statutory sanctions authority. Recent developments, including renewed U.S. sanctions threats, limited technical talks, and persistent tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that no approvable comprehensive agreement will emerge before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
8% chance
$12,421 Vol.
$12,421 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$12,421 Vol.
$12,421 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding have driven the high probability against congressional approval of a final Iran deal this year.** The MOU launched a 60-day window for talks on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, a proposed reconstruction fund, and nuclear limits, but the August 17 deadline passed without agreement amid disputes over verification, enrichment, ballistic missiles, and funding conditions. Lawmakers from both parties have invoked the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act for formal review and a potential disapproval resolution, citing concerns over enforcement, proxy support, and statutory sanctions authority. Recent developments, including renewed U.S. sanctions threats, limited technical talks, and persistent tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that no approvable comprehensive agreement will emerge before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$12,421End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding have driven the high probability against congressional approval of a final Iran deal this year.** The MOU launched a 60-day window for talks on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, a proposed reconstruction fund, and nuclear limits, but the August 17 deadline passed without agreement amid disputes over verification, enrichment, ballistic missiles, and funding conditions. Lawmakers from both parties have invoked the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act for formal review and a potential disapproval resolution, citing concerns over enforcement, proxy support, and statutory sanctions authority. Recent developments, including renewed U.S. sanctions threats, limited technical talks, and persistent tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that no approvable comprehensive agreement will emerge before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$12,421End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Bipartisan congressional skepticism and stalled negotiations following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding have driven the high probability against congressional approval of a final Iran deal this year.** The MOU launched a 60-day window for talks on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, a proposed reconstruction fund, and nuclear limits, but the August 17 deadline passed without agreement amid disputes over verification, enrichment, ballistic missiles, and funding conditions. Lawmakers from both parties have invoked the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act for formal review and a potential disapproval resolution, citing concerns over enforcement, proxy support, and statutory sanctions authority. Recent developments, including renewed U.S. sanctions threats, limited technical talks, and persistent tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that no approvable comprehensive agreement will emerge before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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