**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" because the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has collapsed without producing a final agreement.** The MOU set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with an explicit provision that any final deal would require endorsement via a binding UN Security Council resolution. That timeline expired in mid-August amid renewed tensions, resumed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz, and a shift by the United States to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions and a naval blockade. As of late August 2026, U.S. officials have stated that no active negotiations are underway and that diplomacy remains stalled until Iran engages more substantively. Iran has signaled openness to renewed talks but insists that sustained pressure undermines progress. Reaching a comprehensive, verifiable final accord on Iran’s nuclear program—sufficient for all permanent UNSC members to support a new resolution—faces substantial procedural and substantive hurdles in the remaining four months. Historical precedent shows that UNSC endorsement of major Iran-related agreements requires broad P5 consensus and IAEA-verified steps, both of which remain distant. These developments explain the strong trader consensus against timely resolution by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15% chance
$208,948 Vol.
$208,948 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% chance
$208,948 Vol.
$208,948 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" because the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has collapsed without producing a final agreement.** The MOU set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with an explicit provision that any final deal would require endorsement via a binding UN Security Council resolution. That timeline expired in mid-August amid renewed tensions, resumed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz, and a shift by the United States to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions and a naval blockade.
As of late August 2026, U.S. officials have stated that no active negotiations are underway and that diplomacy remains stalled until Iran engages more substantively. Iran has signaled openness to renewed talks but insists that sustained pressure undermines progress. Reaching a comprehensive, verifiable final accord on Iran’s nuclear program—sufficient for all permanent UNSC members to support a new resolution—faces substantial procedural and substantive hurdles in the remaining four months. Historical precedent shows that UNSC endorsement of major Iran-related agreements requires broad P5 consensus and IAEA-verified steps, both of which remain distant. These developments explain the strong trader consensus against timely resolution by December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Volume
$208,948End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" because the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has collapsed without producing a final agreement.** The MOU set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with an explicit provision that any final deal would require endorsement via a binding UN Security Council resolution. That timeline expired in mid-August amid renewed tensions, resumed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz, and a shift by the United States to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions and a naval blockade.
As of late August 2026, U.S. officials have stated that no active negotiations are underway and that diplomacy remains stalled until Iran engages more substantively. Iran has signaled openness to renewed talks but insists that sustained pressure undermines progress. Reaching a comprehensive, verifiable final accord on Iran’s nuclear program—sufficient for all permanent UNSC members to support a new resolution—faces substantial procedural and substantive hurdles in the remaining four months. Historical precedent shows that UNSC endorsement of major Iran-related agreements requires broad P5 consensus and IAEA-verified steps, both of which remain distant. These developments explain the strong trader consensus against timely resolution by December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,948End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" because the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has collapsed without producing a final agreement.** The MOU set a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with an explicit provision that any final deal would require endorsement via a binding UN Security Council resolution. That timeline expired in mid-August amid renewed tensions, resumed military friction around the Strait of Hormuz, and a shift by the United States to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions and a naval blockade. As of late August 2026, U.S. officials have stated that no active negotiations are underway and that diplomacy remains stalled until Iran engages more substantively. Iran has signaled openness to renewed talks but insists that sustained pressure undermines progress. Reaching a comprehensive, verifiable final accord on Iran’s nuclear program—sufficient for all permanent UNSC members to support a new resolution—faces substantial procedural and substantive hurdles in the remaining four months. Historical precedent shows that UNSC endorsement of major Iran-related agreements requires broad P5 consensus and IAEA-verified steps, both of which remain distant. These developments explain the strong trader consensus against timely resolution by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions