Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 19–26 seats, well below the 32-seat threshold that would avoid a loss. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael has fragmented right-wing support, with multiple surveys showing Likud trailing or barely competitive while the opposition bloc gains ground. Netanyahu has reportedly acknowledged internal concerns over lost seats and coalition shortfalls. These consistent polling trends and vote-splitting dynamics underpin trader consensus on a high probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than in prior cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated92% chance
$14,398 Vol.
$14,398 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
92% chance
$14,398 Vol.
$14,398 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 19–26 seats, well below the 32-seat threshold that would avoid a loss. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael has fragmented right-wing support, with multiple surveys showing Likud trailing or barely competitive while the opposition bloc gains ground. Netanyahu has reportedly acknowledged internal concerns over lost seats and coalition shortfalls. These consistent polling trends and vote-splitting dynamics underpin trader consensus on a high probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than in prior cycles.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,398End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 19–26 seats, well below the 32-seat threshold that would avoid a loss. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael has fragmented right-wing support, with multiple surveys showing Likud trailing or barely competitive while the opposition bloc gains ground. Netanyahu has reportedly acknowledged internal concerns over lost seats and coalition shortfalls. These consistent polling trends and vote-splitting dynamics underpin trader consensus on a high probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than in prior cycles.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$14,398End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 19–26 seats, well below the 32-seat threshold that would avoid a loss. The emergence of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael has fragmented right-wing support, with multiple surveys showing Likud trailing or barely competitive while the opposition bloc gains ground. Netanyahu has reportedly acknowledged internal concerns over lost seats and coalition shortfalls. These consistent polling trends and vote-splitting dynamics underpin trader consensus on a high probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than in prior cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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