**The MA-04 House race remains structurally Democratic in a district with a D+11 PVI and consistent large margins in recent cycles, yet trader pricing on the margin-of-victory market reflects ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 1, 2026 Democratic primary.** Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a substantial fundraising and name-recognition advantage over primary challenger Jason Poulos, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and independents Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook present limited general-election threats. Forecasting outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district’s voter composition and historical results. The clustered probabilities across Democrat margin buckets (particularly 20-25% and 35-40%) and the modest price on Republican wins indicate traders expect a comfortable but variable Democratic margin once the primary resolves. Low Republican opposition and the absence of major national or local catalysts in the past month keep the race stable, with any shift in margin expectations likely tied to primary turnout, nominee strength, or broader midterm dynamics between now and November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
MA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 20-25% 37%
Republican Wins 34.3%
Democrat 35-40% 33%
Democrat 25-30% 33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
31%
Democrat 40-45%
31%
Democrat 35-40%
33%
Democrat 30-35%
32%
Democrat 25-30%
33%
Democrat 20-25%
37%
Democrat 15-20%
30%
Democrat 5-15%
31%
Democrat 0-5%
27%
Republican Wins
34%
Democrat 20-25% 37%
Republican Wins 34.3%
Democrat 35-40% 33%
Democrat 25-30% 33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
$20 Vol.
31%
Democrat 40-45%
$20 Vol.
31%
Democrat 35-40%
$20 Vol.
33%
Democrat 30-35%
$20 Vol.
32%
Democrat 25-30%
$20 Vol.
33%
Democrat 20-25%
$20 Vol.
37%
Democrat 15-20%
$20 Vol.
30%
Democrat 5-15%
$20 Vol.
31%
Democrat 0-5%
$27 Vol.
27%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
34%
The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The MA-04 House race remains structurally Democratic in a district with a D+11 PVI and consistent large margins in recent cycles, yet trader pricing on the margin-of-victory market reflects ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 1, 2026 Democratic primary.** Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a substantial fundraising and name-recognition advantage over primary challenger Jason Poulos, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and independents Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook present limited general-election threats.
Forecasting outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district’s voter composition and historical results. The clustered probabilities across Democrat margin buckets (particularly 20-25% and 35-40%) and the modest price on Republican wins indicate traders expect a comfortable but variable Democratic margin once the primary resolves. Low Republican opposition and the absence of major national or local catalysts in the past month keep the race stable, with any shift in margin expectations likely tied to primary turnout, nominee strength, or broader midterm dynamics between now and November.
The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$187End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The MA-04 House race remains structurally Democratic in a district with a D+11 PVI and consistent large margins in recent cycles, yet trader pricing on the margin-of-victory market reflects ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 1, 2026 Democratic primary.** Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a substantial fundraising and name-recognition advantage over primary challenger Jason Poulos, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and independents Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook present limited general-election threats.
Forecasting outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district’s voter composition and historical results. The clustered probabilities across Democrat margin buckets (particularly 20-25% and 35-40%) and the modest price on Republican wins indicate traders expect a comfortable but variable Democratic margin once the primary resolves. Low Republican opposition and the absence of major national or local catalysts in the past month keep the race stable, with any shift in margin expectations likely tied to primary turnout, nominee strength, or broader midterm dynamics between now and November.
The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$187End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The MA-04 House race remains structurally Democratic in a district with a D+11 PVI and consistent large margins in recent cycles, yet trader pricing on the margin-of-victory market reflects ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 1, 2026 Democratic primary.** Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a substantial fundraising and name-recognition advantage over primary challenger Jason Poulos, while Republican nominee Thomas Stalcup and independents Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook present limited general-election threats. Forecasting outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district’s voter composition and historical results. The clustered probabilities across Democrat margin buckets (particularly 20-25% and 35-40%) and the modest price on Republican wins indicate traders expect a comfortable but variable Democratic margin once the primary resolves. Low Republican opposition and the absence of major national or local catalysts in the past month keep the race stable, with any shift in margin expectations likely tied to primary turnout, nominee strength, or broader midterm dynamics between now and November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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