Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating holds a commanding lead in the MA-09 House race, reflected in the market's 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district's D+6 partisan lean, strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Keating's established incumbency advantage underpin trader consensus, as forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration, with limited signs of a competitive challenge. A Democratic primary victory by Keating on September 1 would likely lock in the outcome barring major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift that alters turnout patterns in the Cape Cod and South Shore areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-09 House Election Winner
MA-09 House Election Winner
$23,170 Vol.
$23,170 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$23,170 Vol.
$23,170 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,268 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$14,902 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating holds a commanding lead in the MA-09 House race, reflected in the market's 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district's D+6 partisan lean, strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Keating's established incumbency advantage underpin trader consensus, as forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration, with limited signs of a competitive challenge. A Democratic primary victory by Keating on September 1 would likely lock in the outcome barring major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift that alters turnout patterns in the Cape Cod and South Shore areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,170End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating holds a commanding lead in the MA-09 House race, reflected in the market's 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district's D+6 partisan lean, strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Keating's established incumbency advantage underpin trader consensus, as forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration, with limited signs of a competitive challenge. A Democratic primary victory by Keating on September 1 would likely lock in the outcome barring major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift that alters turnout patterns in the Cape Cod and South Shore areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,170End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating holds a commanding lead in the MA-09 House race, reflected in the market's 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district's D+6 partisan lean, strong Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Keating's established incumbency advantage underpin trader consensus, as forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration, with limited signs of a competitive challenge. A Democratic primary victory by Keating on September 1 would likely lock in the outcome barring major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift that alters turnout patterns in the Cape Cod and South Shore areas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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