Massachusetts' 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Katherine Clark, the House minority whip, seeks re-election against limited Democratic primary challengers Jonathan Paz and Tarik Samman ahead of the September 1 vote, while Republican field strength remains minimal with candidates such as Walter Grochowski. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district's suburban eastern Massachusetts composition and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors and lack of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated primary disruption, Clark's withdrawal due to health or other personal factors, or a broader national political realignment exceeding typical midterm dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-05 House Election Winner
MA-05 House Election Winner
$37,269 Vol.
$37,269 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$37,269 Vol.
$37,269 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,760 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$10,509 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts' 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Katherine Clark, the House minority whip, seeks re-election against limited Democratic primary challengers Jonathan Paz and Tarik Samman ahead of the September 1 vote, while Republican field strength remains minimal with candidates such as Walter Grochowski. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district's suburban eastern Massachusetts composition and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors and lack of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated primary disruption, Clark's withdrawal due to health or other personal factors, or a broader national political realignment exceeding typical midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$37,269End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts' 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Katherine Clark, the House minority whip, seeks re-election against limited Democratic primary challengers Jonathan Paz and Tarik Samman ahead of the September 1 vote, while Republican field strength remains minimal with candidates such as Walter Grochowski. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district's suburban eastern Massachusetts composition and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors and lack of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated primary disruption, Clark's withdrawal due to health or other personal factors, or a broader national political realignment exceeding typical midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,269End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Massachusetts' 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+24 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Katherine Clark, the House minority whip, seeks re-election against limited Democratic primary challengers Jonathan Paz and Tarik Samman ahead of the September 1 vote, while Republican field strength remains minimal with candidates such as Walter Grochowski. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the district's suburban eastern Massachusetts composition and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors and lack of recent catalysts capable of narrowing the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated primary disruption, Clark's withdrawal due to health or other personal factors, or a broader national political realignment exceeding typical midterm dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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