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Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Kevin McGonigle 82%

Parker Messick 7.0%

Munetaka Murakami 4.9%

Trey Yesavage <1%

Polymarket

$1,638,824 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle 82%

Parker Messick 7.0%

Munetaka Murakami 4.9%

Trey Yesavage <1%

Polymarket

$1,638,824 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle

$47,898 Vol.

82%

Parker Messick

$3,444 Vol.

7%

Munetaka Murakami

$61,248 Vol.

5%

Trey Yesavage

$3,559 Vol.

1%

Payton Tolle

$195,280 Vol.

1%

Kazuma Okamoto

$230,174 Vol.

<1%

Travis Bazzana

$5,298 Vol.

<1%

Chase DeLauter

$5,056 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$71,312 Vol.

<1%

Carter Jensen

$94,578 Vol.

<1%

Walker Jenkins

$63,308 Vol.

<1%

Brice Matthews

$140,796 Vol.

<1%

Leo De Vries

$111,759 Vol.

<1%

Carson Williams

$430,289 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Lagrange

$65,885 Vol.

<1%

Max Clark

$62,974 Vol.

<1%

Tatsuya Imai

$833 Vol.

<1%

Samuel Basallo

$2,450 Vol.

<1%

Dylan Beavers

$1,464 Vol.

<1%

Colt Emerson

$2,546 Vol.

<1%

Sam Antonacci

$231 Vol.

<1%

Spencer Jones

$38,210 Vol.

<1%

George Lombard Jr.

$231 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle has established himself as the clear AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner through elite plate discipline, consistent contact skills, and strong defensive play at shortstop and third base for the Tigers. The 22-year-old debuted on Opening Day with four hits, earned an All-Star nod, and has posted a .278-.283 average with 14 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a walk rate exceeding his strikeout rate across roughly 130 games, leading AL rookies in several advanced metrics including WAR. Recent defensive gems and continued production on a struggling Tigers club have reinforced trader consensus around his 81.5% implied probability. Parker Messick has narrowed the gap slightly with consistent low-ERA starts for Cleveland, while Munetaka Murakami's power output for the White Sox remains a distant threat after earlier injury time. Most other listed prospects trail significantly in playing time, impact, or both.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,638,824
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle has established himself as the clear AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner through elite plate discipline, consistent contact skills, and strong defensive play at shortstop and third base for the Tigers. The 22-year-old debuted on Opening Day with four hits, earned an All-Star nod, and has posted a .278-.283 average with 14 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a walk rate exceeding his strikeout rate across roughly 130 games, leading AL rookies in several advanced metrics including WAR. Recent defensive gems and continued production on a struggling Tigers club have reinforced trader consensus around his 81.5% implied probability. Parker Messick has narrowed the gap slightly with consistent low-ERA starts for Cleveland, while Munetaka Murakami's power output for the White Sox remains a distant threat after earlier injury time. Most other listed prospects trail significantly in playing time, impact, or both.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,638,824
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin McGonigle" at 82%, followed by "Parker Messick" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is "Kevin McGonigle" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Parker Messick" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.