James Harden’s strong preference to remain in Cleveland after his February 2026 trade-deadline arrival has anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by his public statements, strong on-court fit alongside Donovan Mitchell, and the Cavaliers’ recent roster adjustments. He declined his $42.3 million player option in late June to pursue a new multiyear contract with lower annual salary, and reports on August 20 confirmed a three-year, $97 million agreement with a player option and trade kicker once Cleveland completed a five-team sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson. This consensus outcome at 97.7% reflects the wisdom of crowds interpreting official sources and salary-cap maneuvers as near-certain. The only realistic challenges involve last-minute administrative delays around the first-apron hard cap or an unforeseen injury prior to formal signing, though neither has surfaced in credible reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
Cleveland Cavaliers 97.7%
Toronto Raptors 1.7%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
San Antonio Spurs <1%
$1,307,222 Vol.
$1,307,222 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Toronto Raptors
2%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers 97.7%
Toronto Raptors 1.7%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
San Antonio Spurs <1%
$1,307,222 Vol.
$1,307,222 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Toronto Raptors
2%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...James Harden’s strong preference to remain in Cleveland after his February 2026 trade-deadline arrival has anchored trader sentiment, reinforced by his public statements, strong on-court fit alongside Donovan Mitchell, and the Cavaliers’ recent roster adjustments. He declined his $42.3 million player option in late June to pursue a new multiyear contract with lower annual salary, and reports on August 20 confirmed a three-year, $97 million agreement with a player option and trade kicker once Cleveland completed a five-team sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson. This consensus outcome at 97.7% reflects the wisdom of crowds interpreting official sources and salary-cap maneuvers as near-certain. The only realistic challenges involve last-minute administrative delays around the first-apron hard cap or an unforeseen injury prior to formal signing, though neither has surfaced in credible reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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