Current low global SARS-CoV-2 transmission, with test positivity rates near 1.7% and circulation at all-time lows through mid-2026, drives the 96.2% market-implied probability against a new pandemic. WHO's August 2026 risk assessment rates the overall public health threat as moderate, citing continued but manageable spread of monitored variants such as NB.1.8.1, XFG, and BA.3.2 without evidence of heightened severity or immune escape sufficient for pandemic resurgence. High population immunity from prior infections and vaccination further limits severe outcomes. A realistic shift could occur if genomic surveillance detects a novel lineage with substantially greater transmissibility and virulence, prompting rapid case growth and a new PHEIC declaration by WHO.