Current surveillance by the WHO and CDC shows no novel pathogen with sustained, efficient human-to-human transmission capable of sparking a pandemic before end-2027, underpinning the 80% market-implied odds for “No.” Localized threats such as the expanding Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC, sporadic H5N1 avian influenza cases tied to animal exposure, and resurgent measles or mpox remain contained without evidence of rapid global escalation or new variants of concern in SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Post-COVID enhancements in genomic monitoring, contact tracing, and international reporting further reduce undetected spread risk over the remaining 16-month window, though an unexpected mutation enabling airborne transmission or surveillance gaps could still alter trajectories. Historical intervals between major viral pandemics and ongoing zoonotic risks support trader consensus favoring low near-term probability.