Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and pretrial hearings continuing into mid-2026. A joint proposal sets a potential June 2027 trial date on charges that carry substantial sentencing exposure. Trader consensus on low probabilities of release by late 2026 reflects standard federal detention practices for such cases, ongoing legal motions including jurisdictional challenges, and the absence of reported plea agreements or diplomatic interventions that would alter custody status. Scheduled court proceedings and any related Venezuelan transition talks represent the main near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,688,795 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,688,795 Vol.
December 31
$293,346 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and pretrial hearings continuing into mid-2026. A joint proposal sets a potential June 2027 trial date on charges that carry substantial sentencing exposure. Trader consensus on low probabilities of release by late 2026 reflects standard federal detention practices for such cases, ongoing legal motions including jurisdictional challenges, and the absence of reported plea agreements or diplomatic interventions that would alter custody status. Scheduled court proceedings and any related Venezuelan transition talks represent the main near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,688,795End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and pretrial hearings continuing into mid-2026. A joint proposal sets a potential June 2027 trial date on charges that carry substantial sentencing exposure. Trader consensus on low probabilities of release by late 2026 reflects standard federal detention practices for such cases, ongoing legal motions including jurisdictional challenges, and the absence of reported plea agreements or diplomatic interventions that would alter custody status. Scheduled court proceedings and any related Venezuelan transition talks represent the main near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,688,795End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, with not-guilty pleas entered and pretrial hearings continuing into mid-2026. A joint proposal sets a potential June 2027 trial date on charges that carry substantial sentencing exposure. Trader consensus on low probabilities of release by late 2026 reflects standard federal detention practices for such cases, ongoing legal motions including jurisdictional challenges, and the absence of reported plea agreements or diplomatic interventions that would alter custody status. Scheduled court proceedings and any related Venezuelan transition talks represent the main near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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