Delcy Rodríguez holds a commanding position in the Venezuela de facto leader market due to her installation as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice immediately after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. She has retained control of government institutions, the military, and key levers of power well beyond the initial constitutional interim period, while securing U.S. sanctions relief, diplomatic engagement, and cooperation on oil exports and security matters. Ongoing U.S.-backed talks with select opposition factions have produced limited concessions such as prisoner releases and court restructuring, yet major opposition figures remain sidelined or in exile. Scenarios that could shift the outlook include a snap election, internal Chavista fractures, or accelerated U.S. pressure for a broader democratic transition before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDelcy Rodríguez 91%
María Corina Machado 4.0%
Pete Hegseth <1%
Dinorah Figuera <1%
$372,834 Vol.
$372,834 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
91%
María Corina Machado
4%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Dinorah Figuera
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Dan Caine
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Nicolás Maduro
1%
No Head of State
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 91%
María Corina Machado 4.0%
Pete Hegseth <1%
Dinorah Figuera <1%
$372,834 Vol.
$372,834 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$90,601 Vol.
91%
María Corina Machado
$52,877 Vol.
4%
Pete Hegseth
$2,786 Vol.
1%
Dinorah Figuera
$4,243 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$5,960 Vol.
1%
Dan Caine
$3,098 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$2,684 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$3,500 Vol.
1%
Nicolás Maduro
$4,156 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$66,886 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$8,193 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$68,019 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$42,101 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$3,393 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$7,128 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$7,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez holds a commanding position in the Venezuela de facto leader market due to her installation as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice immediately after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. She has retained control of government institutions, the military, and key levers of power well beyond the initial constitutional interim period, while securing U.S. sanctions relief, diplomatic engagement, and cooperation on oil exports and security matters. Ongoing U.S.-backed talks with select opposition factions have produced limited concessions such as prisoner releases and court restructuring, yet major opposition figures remain sidelined or in exile. Scenarios that could shift the outlook include a snap election, internal Chavista fractures, or accelerated U.S. pressure for a broader democratic transition before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$372,834End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez holds a commanding position in the Venezuela de facto leader market due to her installation as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice immediately after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. She has retained control of government institutions, the military, and key levers of power well beyond the initial constitutional interim period, while securing U.S. sanctions relief, diplomatic engagement, and cooperation on oil exports and security matters. Ongoing U.S.-backed talks with select opposition factions have produced limited concessions such as prisoner releases and court restructuring, yet major opposition figures remain sidelined or in exile. Scenarios that could shift the outlook include a snap election, internal Chavista fractures, or accelerated U.S. pressure for a broader democratic transition before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$372,834End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Delcy Rodríguez holds a commanding position in the Venezuela de facto leader market due to her installation as acting president by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice immediately after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. She has retained control of government institutions, the military, and key levers of power well beyond the initial constitutional interim period, while securing U.S. sanctions relief, diplomatic engagement, and cooperation on oil exports and security matters. Ongoing U.S.-backed talks with select opposition factions have produced limited concessions such as prisoner releases and court restructuring, yet major opposition figures remain sidelined or in exile. Scenarios that could shift the outlook include a snap election, internal Chavista fractures, or accelerated U.S. pressure for a broader democratic transition before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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