The U.S. has backed Delcy Rodríguez as interim president since capturing Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, establishing formal diplomatic ties and prioritizing stability amid ongoing recovery from mid-year earthquakes. This approach sidelined María Corina Machado despite her Nobel recognition and opposition prominence, with the Trump administration repeatedly discouraging her return from exile and favoring negotiations led by other figures such as Dinorah Figuera. Public statements from U.S. officials have emphasized Machado’s limited domestic support base, while policy focuses on controlled transition, oil sector normalization, and avoiding unrest. With only four months remaining before the December 31 deadline and no recent diplomatic signals of a shift, traders view formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader as structurally improbable. A reversal could still occur if Rodríguez’s government collapses, major unrest forces a policy pivot, or scheduled opposition talks produce an unexpected electoral pathway.