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icon for Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?
Politics·Trump

Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?

icon for Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?
Politics·Trump

Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?

13% chance
Polymarket
NEW
13% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Natalie Harp ceases to be Special Assistant to the President for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Natalie Harp's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. If Natalie Harp is detained, effectively removed from her role, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Special Assistant to the President within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Natalie Harp and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Natalie Harp continues to serve as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President, a role she has held since January 2025, with no recent official actions, announcements, or developments indicating her removal before December 31, 2026.** Recent August 2026 media coverage, triggered by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff’s campaign remarks naming her in criticism of presidential priorities, prompted strong White House defenses framing her as one of the most loyal and hardest-working aides. Trump has repeatedly highlighted her unmatched commitment, including her role managing information flow, drafting social media content, and accompanying him on travel such as the July 2026 Turkey evacuation amid an alleged Iranian threat. Her position as an Oval Office gatekeeper and frequent Marine One and Air Force One companion shows no signs of erosion, and the administration’s public pushback against scrutiny reinforces continuity. With the resolution window closing in roughly four months and no evident personnel shifts or institutional pressures, trader consensus at 87% for “No” reflects the absence of catalysts for departure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Natalie Harp ceases to be Special Assistant to the President for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Natalie Harp's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

If Natalie Harp is detained, effectively removed from her role, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Special Assistant to the President within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Natalie Harp and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$239
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 6:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Natalie Harp ceases to be Special Assistant to the President for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Natalie Harp's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. If Natalie Harp is detained, effectively removed from her role, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Special Assistant to the President within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Natalie Harp and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Natalie Harp ceases to be Special Assistant to the President for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Natalie Harp's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. If Natalie Harp is detained, effectively removed from her role, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Special Assistant to the President within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Natalie Harp and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Natalie Harp continues to serve as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President, a role she has held since January 2025, with no recent official actions, announcements, or developments indicating her removal before December 31, 2026.** Recent August 2026 media coverage, triggered by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff’s campaign remarks naming her in criticism of presidential priorities, prompted strong White House defenses framing her as one of the most loyal and hardest-working aides. Trump has repeatedly highlighted her unmatched commitment, including her role managing information flow, drafting social media content, and accompanying him on travel such as the July 2026 Turkey evacuation amid an alleged Iranian threat. Her position as an Oval Office gatekeeper and frequent Marine One and Air Force One companion shows no signs of erosion, and the administration’s public pushback against scrutiny reinforces continuity. With the resolution window closing in roughly four months and no evident personnel shifts or institutional pressures, trader consensus at 87% for “No” reflects the absence of catalysts for departure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Natalie Harp ceases to be Special Assistant to the President for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Natalie Harp's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect.

If Natalie Harp is detained, effectively removed from her role, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Special Assistant to the President within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Natalie Harp and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$239
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 6:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Natalie Harp ceases to be Special Assistant to the President for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Natalie Harp's resignation or removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect. If Natalie Harp is detained, effectively removed from her role, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of Special Assistant to the President within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Natalie Harp and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 13% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 13¢, the market collectively assigns a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?" is 13% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.