**US-Iran negotiations and OFAC actions continue to shape oil-sanction relief probabilities.** Following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, OFAC issued General License X on June 22 authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales through August 21, including USD-denominated payments and related services such as insurance and shipping; this unlocked an estimated 67 million barrels of stranded inventory worth $8–9 billion. The license was revoked July 7 amid tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and compliance concerns, prompting a 10-day wind-down under General License X1. As of late August 2026, no renewed waiver has emerged, keeping market-implied odds of reissuance by August 31 near 4–5% amid stalled final-deal talks, elevated geopolitical risk, and Brent/WTI price sensitivity to any supply shift. Traders monitor OFAC announcements, IAEA developments, and Hormuz transit for potential catalysts before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$307,817 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
August 31
3%
September 30
37%
$307,817 Vol.
August 31
$218,935 Vol.
3%
September 30
$0 Vol.
37%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US-Iran negotiations and OFAC actions continue to shape oil-sanction relief probabilities.** Following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, OFAC issued General License X on June 22 authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales through August 21, including USD-denominated payments and related services such as insurance and shipping; this unlocked an estimated 67 million barrels of stranded inventory worth $8–9 billion. The license was revoked July 7 amid tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and compliance concerns, prompting a 10-day wind-down under General License X1. As of late August 2026, no renewed waiver has emerged, keeping market-implied odds of reissuance by August 31 near 4–5% amid stalled final-deal talks, elevated geopolitical risk, and Brent/WTI price sensitivity to any supply shift. Traders monitor OFAC announcements, IAEA developments, and Hormuz transit for potential catalysts before month-end resolution.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volume
$307,817End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US-Iran negotiations and OFAC actions continue to shape oil-sanction relief probabilities.** Following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, OFAC issued General License X on June 22 authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales through August 21, including USD-denominated payments and related services such as insurance and shipping; this unlocked an estimated 67 million barrels of stranded inventory worth $8–9 billion. The license was revoked July 7 amid tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and compliance concerns, prompting a 10-day wind-down under General License X1. As of late August 2026, no renewed waiver has emerged, keeping market-implied odds of reissuance by August 31 near 4–5% amid stalled final-deal talks, elevated geopolitical risk, and Brent/WTI price sensitivity to any supply shift. Traders monitor OFAC announcements, IAEA developments, and Hormuz transit for potential catalysts before month-end resolution.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$307,817End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Iran negotiations and OFAC actions continue to shape oil-sanction relief probabilities.** Following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, OFAC issued General License X on June 22 authorizing Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales through August 21, including USD-denominated payments and related services such as insurance and shipping; this unlocked an estimated 67 million barrels of stranded inventory worth $8–9 billion. The license was revoked July 7 amid tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and compliance concerns, prompting a 10-day wind-down under General License X1. As of late August 2026, no renewed waiver has emerged, keeping market-implied odds of reissuance by August 31 near 4–5% amid stalled final-deal talks, elevated geopolitical risk, and Brent/WTI price sensitivity to any supply shift. Traders monitor OFAC announcements, IAEA developments, and Hormuz transit for potential catalysts before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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