Pete Hegseth remains the confirmed Secretary of Defense (also styled Secretary of War) with an active public schedule of engagements, policy statements on NATO, Iran-related military posture, and Pentagon operations as of late August 2026. He has held the role continuously since Senate confirmation in January 2025, and no official announcements, leaks, or credible reports indicate an imminent departure, resignation, or presidential removal before the August 31 resolution date. Internal Pentagon tensions, including Army leadership vacancies and personnel changes, have not extended to Hegseth's own position. Trader consensus at 99.6% "No" reflects this stability and the absence of triggering events in the final days of the window. Even with such high implied probability, an abrupt development such as a sudden health event, unforeseen scandal, or direct presidential action could still shift the outcome before resolution.