The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in challenges to assault-weapon bans in Connecticut and Cook County, Illinois, anchors trader expectations for a ruling invalidating AR-15 restrictions. With a 6-3 conservative majority and four justices already signaling that these semiautomatic rifles qualify as “arms in common use” under the post-Bruen test, markets price a modest edge for invalidation. Oral arguments are set for the fall 2026 term, with a decision likely by mid-2027 that could affect similar statutes in roughly a dozen states. Lingering uncertainty centers on Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett’s alignment, the precise scope of any holding, and potential state responses, keeping the implied probability near 56 percent.