**Recent statements from the court's oldest members have anchored trader expectations of stability through the end of 2026.** Justice Samuel Alito, 76, told the Wall Street Journal in August that he plans to serve at least another full term, directly addressing and reducing prior retirement speculation ahead of the October 2026 term start. Reporting indicates Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, similarly intends to remain on the bench, consistent with his pursuit of historical longevity records into 2028. No other justices have signaled departures, and no confirmed health or capacity issues have emerged. With lifetime tenure requiring either voluntary retirement or death to create a vacancy, the absence of such catalysts—coupled with an active docket—has produced the current 82% implied probability that no seat opens before December 31. Midterm Senate dynamics could influence future timing but have not altered the near-term signals.