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Politics·Supreme Court

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

icon for Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Politics·Supreme Court

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

$3,568,507 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,568,507 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$1,072,251 Vol.

1%

December 31

$847,217 Vol.

6%

June 30, 2027

$47,375 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Justice Samuel Alito, 76, directly addressed retirement speculation in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview, stating he is “here for another term” on the Supreme Court and dismissing pressure from some conservatives to step down while Republicans control the Senate. The comments followed an erroneous late-June NPR report announcing his departure, which the outlet quickly retracted after the court confirmed no such announcement. Alito has already selected clerks for the term beginning in October 2026. Speculation centers on timing relative to the November 2026 midterms and potential Senate shifts that could complicate confirmation of a successor, though no verified plans or statements indicate an imminent retirement announcement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Volume
$3,568,507
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Justice Samuel Alito, 76, directly addressed retirement speculation in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview, stating he is “here for another term” on the Supreme Court and dismissing pressure from some conservatives to step down while Republicans control the Senate. The comments followed an erroneous late-June NPR report announcing his departure, which the outlet quickly retracted after the court confirmed no such announcement. Alito has already selected clerks for the term beginning in October 2026. Speculation centers on timing relative to the November 2026 midterms and potential Senate shifts that could complicate confirmation of a successor, though no verified plans or statements indicate an imminent retirement announcement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Volume
$3,568,507
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2027" at 35%, followed by "December 31" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?" has generated $3.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?" is "June 30, 2027" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.