Lula faces a vacant STF seat since Luís Roberto Barroso’s October 2025 retirement, following Senate rejection of his nominee Jorge Messias in April 2026 by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to signal intent to renominate Messias but has received private advice from senators and justices to select a consensus candidate, potentially a woman, to fill the current opening and avoid straining ties with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre ahead of the October 2026 election. Multiple future vacancies loom after compulsory retirements of justices including Luiz Fux and Cármen Lúcia. Trader assessments hinge on Lula’s re-election prospects, Senate vote thresholds requiring 41 approvals, and whether he prioritizes an immediate announcement or defers to post-election leverage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,802 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
31%
December 31
59%
$21,802 Vol.
September 30
$2,529 Vol.
31%
December 31
$5,524 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula faces a vacant STF seat since Luís Roberto Barroso’s October 2025 retirement, following Senate rejection of his nominee Jorge Messias in April 2026 by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to signal intent to renominate Messias but has received private advice from senators and justices to select a consensus candidate, potentially a woman, to fill the current opening and avoid straining ties with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre ahead of the October 2026 election. Multiple future vacancies loom after compulsory retirements of justices including Luiz Fux and Cármen Lúcia. Trader assessments hinge on Lula’s re-election prospects, Senate vote thresholds requiring 41 approvals, and whether he prioritizes an immediate announcement or defers to post-election leverage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$21,802End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula faces a vacant STF seat since Luís Roberto Barroso’s October 2025 retirement, following Senate rejection of his nominee Jorge Messias in April 2026 by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to signal intent to renominate Messias but has received private advice from senators and justices to select a consensus candidate, potentially a woman, to fill the current opening and avoid straining ties with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre ahead of the October 2026 election. Multiple future vacancies loom after compulsory retirements of justices including Luiz Fux and Cármen Lúcia. Trader assessments hinge on Lula’s re-election prospects, Senate vote thresholds requiring 41 approvals, and whether he prioritizes an immediate announcement or defers to post-election leverage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,802End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula faces a vacant STF seat since Luís Roberto Barroso’s October 2025 retirement, following Senate rejection of his nominee Jorge Messias in April 2026 by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat for a president in over 130 years. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to signal intent to renominate Messias but has received private advice from senators and justices to select a consensus candidate, potentially a woman, to fill the current opening and avoid straining ties with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre ahead of the October 2026 election. Multiple future vacancies loom after compulsory retirements of justices including Luiz Fux and Cármen Lúcia. Trader assessments hinge on Lula’s re-election prospects, Senate vote thresholds requiring 41 approvals, and whether he prioritizes an immediate announcement or defers to post-election leverage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions