Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds majority—54 of 81 votes—for convicting and removing an STF justice, a threshold never met in the court's history. With Senate elections set for October 2026 and the new legislature convening only in 2027, the remaining months offer minimal opportunity for the current chamber to advance any pending requests. Leading justices, including Gilmar Mendes, have publicly highlighted procedural and institutional barriers, including prior rulings that raised the effective quorum and delayed proceedings. Campaign pledges targeting specific justices reflect electoral messaging rather than imminent legislative action. While isolated requests continue to surface, trader consensus reflects the combination of high constitutional hurdles, compressed timeline, and stable Senate composition that makes removal before 2027 improbable absent an unforeseen crisis.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$83,913 Vol.
$83,913 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$83,913 Vol.
$83,913 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds majority—54 of 81 votes—for convicting and removing an STF justice, a threshold never met in the court's history. With Senate elections set for October 2026 and the new legislature convening only in 2027, the remaining months offer minimal opportunity for the current chamber to advance any pending requests. Leading justices, including Gilmar Mendes, have publicly highlighted procedural and institutional barriers, including prior rulings that raised the effective quorum and delayed proceedings. Campaign pledges targeting specific justices reflect electoral messaging rather than imminent legislative action. While isolated requests continue to surface, trader consensus reflects the combination of high constitutional hurdles, compressed timeline, and stable Senate composition that makes removal before 2027 improbable absent an unforeseen crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,913End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds majority—54 of 81 votes—for convicting and removing an STF justice, a threshold never met in the court's history. With Senate elections set for October 2026 and the new legislature convening only in 2027, the remaining months offer minimal opportunity for the current chamber to advance any pending requests. Leading justices, including Gilmar Mendes, have publicly highlighted procedural and institutional barriers, including prior rulings that raised the effective quorum and delayed proceedings. Campaign pledges targeting specific justices reflect electoral messaging rather than imminent legislative action. While isolated requests continue to surface, trader consensus reflects the combination of high constitutional hurdles, compressed timeline, and stable Senate composition that makes removal before 2027 improbable absent an unforeseen crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,913End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazilian Senate rules require a two-thirds majority—54 of 81 votes—for convicting and removing an STF justice, a threshold never met in the court's history. With Senate elections set for October 2026 and the new legislature convening only in 2027, the remaining months offer minimal opportunity for the current chamber to advance any pending requests. Leading justices, including Gilmar Mendes, have publicly highlighted procedural and institutional barriers, including prior rulings that raised the effective quorum and delayed proceedings. Campaign pledges targeting specific justices reflect electoral messaging rather than imminent legislative action. While isolated requests continue to surface, trader consensus reflects the combination of high constitutional hurdles, compressed timeline, and stable Senate composition that makes removal before 2027 improbable absent an unforeseen crisis.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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