Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding four-count indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to U.S. custody. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans early motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and jurisdictional grounds, with filings due in September 2026 and arguments in November. The schedule includes extensive classified evidence production into late 2026, exclusion of speedy-trial deadlines, and pretrial complexity that historically complicates full convictions in similar cases. Traders price the 82% "No" outcome on these procedural hurdles, the compressed timeline to the December 2027 resolution date, and the scope for partial outcomes or unresolved motions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated18% chance
$132,718 Vol.
$132,718 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
18% chance
$132,718 Vol.
$132,718 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding four-count indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to U.S. custody. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans early motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and jurisdictional grounds, with filings due in September 2026 and arguments in November. The schedule includes extensive classified evidence production into late 2026, exclusion of speedy-trial deadlines, and pretrial complexity that historically complicates full convictions in similar cases. Traders price the 82% "No" outcome on these procedural hurdles, the compressed timeline to the December 2027 resolution date, and the scope for partial outcomes or unresolved motions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$132,718End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding four-count indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to U.S. custody. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans early motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and jurisdictional grounds, with filings due in September 2026 and arguments in November. The schedule includes extensive classified evidence production into late 2026, exclusion of speedy-trial deadlines, and pretrial complexity that historically complicates full convictions in similar cases. Traders price the 82% "No" outcome on these procedural hurdles, the compressed timeline to the December 2027 resolution date, and the scope for partial outcomes or unresolved motions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$132,718End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in Manhattan federal court on a superseding four-count indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and transfer to U.S. custody. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty. Defense counsel plans early motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity and jurisdictional grounds, with filings due in September 2026 and arguments in November. The schedule includes extensive classified evidence production into late 2026, exclusion of speedy-trial deadlines, and pretrial complexity that historically complicates full convictions in similar cases. Traders price the 82% "No" outcome on these procedural hurdles, the compressed timeline to the December 2027 resolution date, and the scope for partial outcomes or unresolved motions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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