The ongoing trial of Duane “Keffe D” Davis, the sole defendant charged in Tupac Shakur’s 1996 killing, has lifted the market-implied probability of conviction to 64%. Prosecutors have centered their case on Davis’s own prior statements, including his 2019 memoir and police interviews in which he described serving as the “shot-caller” who supplied the weapon after a confrontation at the MGM Grand. With the prosecution resting its case in late August after presenting those admissions and related recordings, traders view the self-incriminating evidence as the dominant factor. The defense is now expected to argue the accounts were fabricated for profit and to call witnesses, while the roughly four-to-six-week trial timeline and Nevada’s legal standards for aiding-and-abetting liability remain key swing variables through year-end.