The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, 6-3 decision in Trump v. Barbara struck down the administration’s executive order on birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for a majority that included two Trump appointees. The 25-day window for a rehearing petition closed in late July without any filing on the docket, despite earlier statements from President Trump. The Court has not granted rehearing in an argued merits case in more than five decades, establishing a strong historical baseline against such relief. Traders assign 96.3% probability to “No” by year-end because the procedural deadline has passed and no alternative mechanism exists under standard Supreme Court rules. Late developments that could still shift odds remain narrow, such as an extraordinary sua sponte order or procedural anomaly, though neither has precedent in comparable cases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, 6-3 decision in Trump v. Barbara struck down the administration’s executive order on birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for a majority that included two Trump appointees. The 25-day window for a rehearing petition closed in late July without any filing on the docket, despite earlier statements from President Trump. The Court has not granted rehearing in an argued merits case in more than five decades, establishing a strong historical baseline against such relief. Traders assign 96.3% probability to “No” by year-end because the procedural deadline has passed and no alternative mechanism exists under standard Supreme Court rules. Late developments that could still shift odds remain narrow, such as an extraordinary sua sponte order or procedural anomaly, though neither has precedent in comparable cases.
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,762End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, 6-3 decision in Trump v. Barbara struck down the administration’s executive order on birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for a majority that included two Trump appointees. The 25-day window for a rehearing petition closed in late July without any filing on the docket, despite earlier statements from President Trump. The Court has not granted rehearing in an argued merits case in more than five decades, establishing a strong historical baseline against such relief. Traders assign 96.3% probability to “No” by year-end because the procedural deadline has passed and no alternative mechanism exists under standard Supreme Court rules. Late developments that could still shift odds remain narrow, such as an extraordinary sua sponte order or procedural anomaly, though neither has precedent in comparable cases.
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,762End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, 6-3 decision in Trump v. Barbara struck down the administration’s executive order on birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for a majority that included two Trump appointees. The 25-day window for a rehearing petition closed in late July without any filing on the docket, despite earlier statements from President Trump. The Court has not granted rehearing in an argued merits case in more than five decades, establishing a strong historical baseline against such relief. Traders assign 96.3% probability to “No” by year-end because the procedural deadline has passed and no alternative mechanism exists under standard Supreme Court rules. Late developments that could still shift odds remain narrow, such as an extraordinary sua sponte order or procedural anomaly, though neither has precedent in comparable cases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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