Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.3% implied probability of remaining in office through December 31, 2026, consistent with the low historical rate of presidential resignations and the lack of any confirmed health issues, scandals, or institutional pressures that would force an early exit during his second term. Following the 2024 election outcome and inauguration, the administration has shown continuity in priorities without procedural triggers such as impeachment proceedings or party-led calls for departure. The wisdom of crowds in this market reflects established base rates for incumbents completing terms absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments, including verified medical disclosures or significant legal rulings, remain the primary scenarios that could still shift these odds within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$534,493 Vol.
$534,493 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$534,493 Vol.
$534,493 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.3% implied probability of remaining in office through December 31, 2026, consistent with the low historical rate of presidential resignations and the lack of any confirmed health issues, scandals, or institutional pressures that would force an early exit during his second term. Following the 2024 election outcome and inauguration, the administration has shown continuity in priorities without procedural triggers such as impeachment proceedings or party-led calls for departure. The wisdom of crowds in this market reflects established base rates for incumbents completing terms absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments, including verified medical disclosures or significant legal rulings, remain the primary scenarios that could still shift these odds within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$534,493End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.3% implied probability of remaining in office through December 31, 2026, consistent with the low historical rate of presidential resignations and the lack of any confirmed health issues, scandals, or institutional pressures that would force an early exit during his second term. Following the 2024 election outcome and inauguration, the administration has shown continuity in priorities without procedural triggers such as impeachment proceedings or party-led calls for departure. The wisdom of crowds in this market reflects established base rates for incumbents completing terms absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments, including verified medical disclosures or significant legal rulings, remain the primary scenarios that could still shift these odds within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$534,493End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.3% implied probability of remaining in office through December 31, 2026, consistent with the low historical rate of presidential resignations and the lack of any confirmed health issues, scandals, or institutional pressures that would force an early exit during his second term. Following the 2024 election outcome and inauguration, the administration has shown continuity in priorities without procedural triggers such as impeachment proceedings or party-led calls for departure. The wisdom of crowds in this market reflects established base rates for incumbents completing terms absent extraordinary events. Late-breaking developments, including verified medical disclosures or significant legal rulings, remain the primary scenarios that could still shift these odds within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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