SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.75–1.8 trillion valuation positioned the stock for rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion via relaxed rules, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to ease its standards, leaving the S&P 500 timeline unchanged. Trader consensus at 94.8% against 2026 addition reflects the index's requirements for at least 12 months of public trading history, positive GAAP net income across the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters, and a minimum 10% investable weight factor—criteria SpaceX cannot satisfy before mid-2027 given its post-IPO losses and limited float. This skin-in-the-game view aligns with institutional benchmarks, though an unforeseen S&P methodology shift or accelerated profitability could theoretically alter the path before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$21,033 Vol.
$21,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$21,033 Vol.
$21,033 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.75–1.8 trillion valuation positioned the stock for rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion via relaxed rules, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to ease its standards, leaving the S&P 500 timeline unchanged. Trader consensus at 94.8% against 2026 addition reflects the index's requirements for at least 12 months of public trading history, positive GAAP net income across the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters, and a minimum 10% investable weight factor—criteria SpaceX cannot satisfy before mid-2027 given its post-IPO losses and limited float. This skin-in-the-game view aligns with institutional benchmarks, though an unforeseen S&P methodology shift or accelerated profitability could theoretically alter the path before year-end.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$21,033End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.75–1.8 trillion valuation positioned the stock for rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion via relaxed rules, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to ease its standards, leaving the S&P 500 timeline unchanged. Trader consensus at 94.8% against 2026 addition reflects the index's requirements for at least 12 months of public trading history, positive GAAP net income across the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters, and a minimum 10% investable weight factor—criteria SpaceX cannot satisfy before mid-2027 given its post-IPO losses and limited float. This skin-in-the-game view aligns with institutional benchmarks, though an unforeseen S&P methodology shift or accelerated profitability could theoretically alter the path before year-end.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$21,033End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a roughly $1.75–1.8 trillion valuation positioned the stock for rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion via relaxed rules, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to ease its standards, leaving the S&P 500 timeline unchanged. Trader consensus at 94.8% against 2026 addition reflects the index's requirements for at least 12 months of public trading history, positive GAAP net income across the most recent quarter and trailing four quarters, and a minimum 10% investable weight factor—criteria SpaceX cannot satisfy before mid-2027 given its post-IPO losses and limited float. This skin-in-the-game view aligns with institutional benchmarks, though an unforeseen S&P methodology shift or accelerated profitability could theoretically alter the path before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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